Dream Shattered: South Sudan

We celebrated when South Sudan was born, world’s youngest nation. But now, when it is undergoing an existential crisis where army rapes their own citizen’s as a mode of payment world is looking at the other way. If rest of the world and its institutions could give enough attention to this tiny little country; at least a quarter of attention they providing for Syria, Afghan, Iraq etc, this place could breathe a bit.

What South Sudan desperately required is an institutional mechanism, which even if don’t provide education or medical service at least wont rape, torture and kill them. As humans we at least have the responsibility to save our fellow beings from merciless mass slaughter. If we are not acting now, then the blood will be in our hands too and its won’t be easy to wash out.

Sajeev.

The damn war - Life in South Sudan

"The only certainty is that it will get worse in the coming months, and the women and girls who die will be war casualties. “Those who are dying of gunshots,” Dr. Dut notes, “are fewer than those who are dying of hunger.” - Starvation as a Product of War, Nicholas Kristof

Their crime? Born in South Sudan at worse time in History.

War and crisis in South Sudan didn’t start yesterday or today. Causalities started piling up some time back; world had enough time to avert the crisis. But, ‘South Sudan’ is not China or Japan; neither this conflict has the glamour of Eastern Ukraine nor that of Palestine. Involved parties don't possess nukes and they don't have missiles which can reach any powerful city in the world. What is abundant in this part of world is AK47, starvation and death. Lately starvation cause more death than AK47.

There is a possibility of famine this year; continuous civil war only makes it worse. There is also a supply side constraint as the road from capital Juba is cut off due to fighting and Northern border with Sudan is closed due to disputes. Isolated from nearby regions and abandoned by rest of the world, people in this area are crumbling under the weight of starvation - death looks like a blessing to them.

At the point of time, it is important to reach an agreement on this conflict and bring an end to this. If P5+1 can show half the interest they had to reach a deal with Iran, this crisis can be stopped.

Hope that, Obama's this visit (last as president) will see some kind of deal on this.

Sajeev
References
Starvation as a Product of War, Nicholas Kristof

Boko Haram’s usage of under aged girls as suicide bombers is a crime against humanity

Parents of Chibok kidnapping victims

20 people were killed in a recent blast in northern Nigerian market of Maiduguri. Blast was not unexpected in this part of Nigeria, which is hotbed of Boko Haram’s insurgency.  The word ‘Boko Haram’ means ‘Western education is forbidden’; they are trying everything to justify that name.

What makes this blast different from other suicide attacks is the usage of a girl, no more than 10 year old, as carrier.

Imagine who will suspect a 10 year girl who hides powerful explosives under her veil?  But it’s a reality now; security forces need to be extra careful about people in veil. The sad part of this equation is ‘Boko Haram’ already kidnapped more than 200 girls. There is a possibility that many more will end up as suicide bombers.

Abubakar Shekau, Chief of 'Boko Haram'  Oct 2014

Hope that a stricter vigil from security forces and local participation will help the authorities to save those poor girls from Boko Haram’s grip.

Sajeev

References

1. In Nigeria, New Boko Haram Suicide Bomber Tactic: ‘It’s a Little Girl’ - NYT

Some reprieve for Nigerian Oil spill victims

Gates of Oil reifnery in Port Harcourt

Shell finally did what it supposed to do years back. They could have done it voluntarily without going through long court cases and all. After all, isn’t it their responsibility to clean up the mess created by them? Two oil spills in 2008 destroyed thousands of acres of mangroves and seafood which sustained a large community.

“Of the total settlement, $53.1 million will go to 15,600 fishermen and farmers, and $30.4 million to the Bodo community. A local chief said the community money would be used for basic services.” - NYT

I hope the money will reach its intended destination and there will be some restoration work. Or will it end up in numbered accounts

Sajeev

Timbuktu – From the middle of civilization to a tiny dot in Saharan desert

We often debate about the pain, each civil war inflicts upon common people. What we often overlook during bloody conflicts (civil wars or revolutions) is its effects on urban infrastructure. Cities and factories built over decades were destroyed in matter of minutes by IEDs, C4s and shells. Business environment and stability created over a long period of time disappears within days.

In this Guardian article, you can read the tragic story of a city located in the heart of Africa (sands of Sahara on her northern border). As terrorists and Sahara are intruding in to this city – once famous for gold and trading – people are on their final effort to survive.

Life in Timbuktu: how the ancient city of gold is slowlyturning to dust.

Sajeev

Massacre in Masai Mara, the tragedy continues

African Forest Elephant

Elephant’s tusk is one of the most valued possessions in anybody's home or office. The reason for its huge demand is not due to its strength or colour or style but due to the simple fact that, it comes from the biggest living land animal. Can't we replace small statues made out of ivory with some plastic or terracotta items? Yes, we can; but we won’t do. In addition to that, people are ready to pay sky high prices to join the massacre (directly or indirectly) to get a piece of that poor animal’s teeth.

192 Elephant Carcass!!!

In these days, when numerous human beings are getting killed or raped every day, finding one or two elephant carcass hardly matter. But 192 of them are shocking!!! As per WWF report (results accumulated from an aerial survey), "117 were in Kenya and 75 in Tanzania. More shocking is that of all the carcasses found in Kenya, 84 per cent were outside of the Masai Mara National Reserve, and each had its tusks missing."

It’s time to stop this blood bath in the reserves of Africa. Governments of many Asian countries have to implement strict ban on imports of body parts of endangered species. When demand resides considerably supply will also reduce.

Positive Signs

At the same time, there are some rays of hope in the horizon. As per the report, “general results for this census show an increasing trend of elephants and buffaloes in the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem where the number of elephants counted shows an increasing trend from 2,058 in 1986 to 7,535 individuals in 2014. There was also an increase in buffalo population in the area, from 54,979 (in 1986) to 61,896 individuals (in 2014)”

Congrats to all those who tried to give their all-out effort for conservation.

Way forward

Even though the numbers shows an increasing trend this is not the time to relax, especially after discovering 192 carcasses. We need to focus more on anti-poaching process and conservation of habitat.

As WWF article suggests, “acquiring anti-poaching equipment and technology, engaging communities and private sector in anti-poaching campaigns, carrying out elephant censuses, working with communities to reduce human wildlife conflict, securing elephant range outside protected areas, monitoring threats and developing national and sub-regional databases for use in managing elephant and rhino populations” are very much important for the very survival of this majestic animal in African forests. Same rule is applicable for India as well.

Sajeev

1. Massive loss of elephants in the Mara Serengeti ecosystem concerns conservationists - WWF

South Sudan – A nation in crossroads

South Sudan may be the youngest nation in the world. However, recent actions by her political and military leadership shows that, the entity which we call ‘South Sudan’ is far from anything called a nation. 

It’s not unprecedented that a Vice President want to become a President. I think almost all VPs would like to become president one day. What came next in South Sudan - even though not unprecedented – was not expected from the leaders of this young nation.

For the record, following the problems between the President Salva Kiir and his VP Riek Machar, continuous violence become (I can confidently say once again) part of South Sudan’s daily life. 

There are multiple factors acting in this situation,

1. Riek Machar – Vice President – is from Nuer tribe. Forces under his command control parts of Jonglei and oil rich Unity state. 

2. Salva Kiir – President – is from Dinka tribe (different form that of Vice President). He is backed by neighbors, well supplied and controls other seven states. 

3. Uganda – Sided with Kiir and sent troops to South Sudan. They already control Juba airport and bombed rebel positions. According to some reports, Uganda is looking for oil pipeline contracts - where oil from South Sudan will reach Indian Ocean ports through their country instead of the proposed route passing through Kenya. 

4. Sudan – Not part of this conflict as of now. This country is in a perilous position. Their economy is dependent on royalties earned from South Sudan’s oil passing through their land. 

5. Ethiopia – An influential neighbor but still recovering from the loss of her powerful leader Meles Zenawi. Not in a position of powerful bargains.

Violence already displaced more than 1,80,000 people. Some 80,000 are already in five UN bases.

Many parts of Africa still think in terms of tribes and religion. South Sudan is not different. So any personal rivalry will not take much time to metamorphose to a full-fledged tribal warfare. This is what we are seeing now. Personal rivalry between President and VP become a tribal issue and they started fighting each other. 

It is better for South Sudanese leaders to reach a power sharing formula and start afresh. 

South Sudanese people went through all those troublesome years, not to get this type of leadership who are more interested in setting their personal scores than doing something for the development. They owe a lot to international community for supporting South Sudanese independence movement. Now it’s the time to fulfil those promises.

Sajeev.

Torture, Rape and Murder - Miserable stories of Ethiopian migrants in Yemen

From the dawn of human civilization people used to travel across the world, across mighty mountains and deep oceans, dry deserts and dangerous forests. Many perished on the way; numerous others reached far flung lands and started a new life.

In those days such journeys were a gamble. A bet those people made for a better tomorrow, for a better future. Dangers always hung as Damocles sword above their head. Even now, it is very much dangerous in many parts of the world – illegal detentions, indefinite prison terms, boat accidents, shooting at borders, brutal torture, rape, kidnappings etc.

BBC’s Yalda Hakim illustrates the fate of Ethiopians in Yemen here - "Ethiopianmigrants tell of torture and rape in Yemen".

Timbuktu - A loss for humanity

Many of us may not hear about this West African site. Unfortunately, Timbuktu came to global attention when it fights its last battle for survival. Now under the control of fundamentalists, the city may soon attain the fate of Bamiyan Buddha, if international community is not ready to do anything more than lip service.

Timuktu, also known as the 'City of 333 saints', was a centre of Islamic learning from 13th to 17th centuries. This city also has a huge collection of old manuscripts, books, letters etc in her private and public libraries. Timuktu's three mosques and 16 cemeteries are also in UNESCO's world heritage list.

But, all this qualifications didn’t stop 'Ansar Dine' from its programme of destroying this cultural heritage. Timuktu's (which follows Sufi tradition of Islam) fault was, it doesn’t follow Ansar Dine's interpretation of salafist ideology. According to the reports the group already destroyed may of 16 listed mausoleums and pledged to destroy rest of them. They also bring down the sacred door of 15th century ‘Sidi Yahia Mosque’.

It is easy to destroy these things, centuries old buildings may not offer much resistance to fundamentalists’ new weapons. But, with this we are losing some of the most valued cultural signature of the old world. Do we really have the right to bring down these icons which were left to us by our ancestors?

Government and international community may or may not be able to control ‘Ansar Dine’ tomorrow, but if we are not able to do something today then we are losing some of the most valued possessions. It will be better for ‘Ansar Dine’ to remember that they are destroying the very identity of their own ancestors.

Sajeev.

Photo Courtesy: Wikipedia

Rape, Marriage and Suicide the case of 16 year old Moroccan girl

Raped at 15 by a man 10 years older to her, later forced to marry him, Amina Filali finally died on March 10 in a Northern Morocco hospital after swallowing rat poison. The obvious reason for the death is poison but so as the Article 475 of Moroccan Penal Code which permits the rapist to go without any punishment if he agrees to marry the victim. In this case also same thing happened, but after five months of married life Amina committed suicide.

According to the Human Rights Watch's report 'Article 475 provides for a prison term of one to five years for a person who “abducts or deceives a minor, less than 18 years of age, without violence, threat or fraud, or attempts to do so.” However, the second clause of that article specifies that when the minor marries the man, “he can no longer be prosecuted except by persons empowered to demand the annulment of the marriage and then only after the annulment has been proclaimed.” That clause effectively prevents the prosecutor from independently pursuing rape charges.'(#1)

475 is not the only section in Morocco's penal code depriving women of her rights. 490 and 496 are equally problematic. 490 criminalise consensual sex between unmarried people. That means, if a woman loss the case of rape in court, she can be prosecuted for having sex outside the marriage!!! An easiest was for branding a victim as a criminal. Article 496 punishes anyone who “knowingly hides or subverts the search for a married woman who is evading the authority to which she is legally subject.”(#1). In short a person can be punished if he/she tried to give shelter to a married woman facing severe domestic abuse.

The problem is not limited to Morocco; sexual and other types of violence against women both minor and major are often neglected in many countries. The main problem is the lifelong taboo society forcefully stamped on the victim. Instead of viewing the victim of rape (or any other sexual violence) through the eyes of sympathy society often consider her as dishonour to her family. The victim is forced to suffer the lifelong trauma of both violence and social treatment.

Time is already over for deleting these types of repressive laws from the books. Simply changing the law will not help; society has to change the attitude. Looking the victims through the glasses of liability and dishonour will only lead to the destruction of moral values. We can hope that this tragic death and subsequent protests in the streets will open the eyes of administration to change the law.

Sajeev.

1. Morocco: Girl’s Death Highlights Flawed Laws
2. In Morocco, the rape and death of an adolescent girl prompts calls for changes to the penal code
3. Death of Rape Victim in Morocco Sparks Calls for Legal Reform

Photo Courtesy: Wikipedia, later edited to suit this article

Egyptian constitutional drafting panel becoming thinner and thinner

So many interesting things were set in motion by Arab Spring in this ancient country. Sleeping for a long time, Egyptians suddenly woke up and pulled down their government. Military took over the administration. Then another cat and mouse game started for conducting election.

Finally election was also over and Egypt started to think about drafting a new constitution. This constitution is an interesting entity, some countries stick to their old constitutions while some others switch to new one even before the ink dries from the older ones.

After elections – won by Islamic factions, 100 member council (Constituent Assembly of Egypt) formed to draft the new constitution. So far good, but the problem with the council was women - who eagerly participated in revolution and later forced to undergo virginity tests, minorities like Bedouins from Sinai or Nubians from Sudan border were underrepresented. There were only 6 women and apparently no one from Bedouins or Nubians. Liberals too were in severe short supply. Coptic Christians – Christians forms around 10% of Egyptian population too felt that – too felt that they can’t do nothing much in the constitutional body dominated by Islamic conservatives. Finally they also pulled out making the total number of people pulling out to 25.

Now if the minority is under-represented or not represented at all, what will happen to their interests? Of course, if Muslim Brotherhood worked hard they can create a wonderful constitution. But if others doesn't have a stake in it, if they don't feel it as their own then how far they will accept it? One of my favourite Mark Twain quote is “Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.” It’s the time for Brotherhood and other Islamic conservatives who hold the majority to bring all others – women, liberals, Bedouins, Nubians, Coptics etc – to the table and start drafting the constitution. Power comes with responsibility.

Sajeev.

Photo courtesy: Wikipedia - later edited to suit this article.

Sudan and her southern sibling - Still far away from anything called peace

There were a lot of expectations when South Sudan becomes independent. Many thought that the fighting may stop now. At least peace prevails for sometime; some moments of escape for the people from the constant fear of death.

But the subsequent events extinguished even the smallest ray of hope. Within a short periods of time the next centre of tensions emerged - The oil rich Abyei and Nuba Mountain.  It seems like there is no scarcity for a reason to fight and weapons. The organised militias and state run armies often care less about the sufferings they are inflicting on the common people for some drops of oil or to propagate some claims.

Here the only two things which are not so scarce may be bullets and deaths.

Unfortunately African problems are not getting enough attention in the international circles. It looks like other than in the school atlas Africa doesn't exist for rest of the world. Other than popping up occasionally in the international conferences, the plights of Africans are not reaching properly in the international arena. Or did we accept massacres, tribal wars and ethnic cleansings as an African way of life?

Today international organizations and other countries have enough recourse to save Africa. They are not asking for international standards of life or other facilities. The only thing they are asking is some moments of peace, enough power to escape from the bullets accelerating towards them.

Sajeev.

Picture courtesy: Wikipedia (Later edited to suit this article)

The other side of Oil Economy - Nigerian Protests

Lagos Island and part of Lagos Harbour - Nigeria

If we had some oil and gas!!! A thought which may came to the minds of millions of people living in the countries deprived of oil and gas (and subjected to oil shocks). Tensions in Middle East – which will happen constantly – used to give sleepless nights to the governments. A sober condition, if government absorbs the shock the deficit will balloon beyond any control; if they pass it to the common people, law makers will see the protesters on streets in the next day. In both cases foreign reserve will evaporate quickly.

But what’s the situation in oil economies. Let’s take the case of African oil giant Nigeria where the protesters are in streets opposing the recently doubled price of oil (from 65 Naira (0.4$) to 97 Naira (0.6$)). It’s another matter that, after facing severe protests in the streets government reduced the price by 30%. If I can put it in official way “given the hardships being suffered by Nigerians, and after due consideration and consultations with state governors and the leadership of the National Assembly, government has approved the reduction of the pump price of petrol to 97 naira (about $0.60) per litre". But what Nigerians think about their oil assets, I just went through the opinions expressed by people in various newspapers.  A number of them are given below,

Nigeria, like most of Africa does not produce anything itself, it is just luck that Nigeria has a commodity that the world wants, when that changes what will Nigeria do then?

...citizens are divided between the very few rich and the very many poor. It’s only thru the fuel subsidy that the poor feels the government. Citizens generate their own electricity and water. We don't have roads and educational facilities. The rich man's children are abroad.

Government through a public/private partnership should first provide steady electricity, good roads and clean water supply before asking Nigerians to make more sacrifice. Politicians should cut their salary and perks.

You have no idea what is like for the ordinary Nigerian! There is no cheap public transport system. The public is transported to work in the majority of states by a taxi system [OKADAS] which are small motor bikes, what do you think they consume? Water? This is why people are protesting, their cost of living has doubled but their wages remain the same, how would you survive?

The Petroleum Products Pricing Agency and the cabals that import petrol in a nation that exports 2M barrels of crude oil/ day, without functioning refinery. A senator's take home pay is $135,000/month.

Petrol subsidies are damaging for the environment, damaging for the Nigeria's economy, and are a subsidy for car owners paid by all - in effect a subsidy for the relatively well off.

The problems are manifold. Even though Nigeria is a major oil producer she doesn’t have a decent refinery to refine the crude to fuel. The result is, Nigeria imports oil for its domestic purpose - an unnecessary expenditure for a long term oil producer. Another constant complain among people is, Petro dollars flowing in to the country is not making its impact on critical infrastructure because of this people need to have oil running their diesel generators.

IMF was pushing for reducing the subsidy on oil for long time. According to Nigerian authorities subsidy was costing an equivalent of $8bn a year. They claim that this money can better spend in infrastructure and social services. An argument, administration was unable to sell to the people. Government claims that the advantage of low price for oil is going to the wholesalers, who in turn sell the subsidized fuel in neighbouring countries at full price.

Let’s consider the first case.

IMF is right, subsidized oil is creating a big hole in government's finances. But the question is what is exactly by subsidy? In the case of India, Korea, China, Germany etc, we can say that government should reduce the subsidy as these countries are buying oil from external market for full price. If government gives heavy subsidies for this imported oil, it will not take much time for the administration to find them in deep financial crisis. But in Nigeria’s case, it has the oil – in fact a plenty of oil. Why Nigerians need to pay heavy price for an item which is so abundant in their country?

It is altogether another matter that Nigeria is importing an 85% of fuel it needed from international markets because of the absence of something called a decent refinery. This is administrations problem, after all it was an oil exporter for a long time. So basically the people need to pay for the inefficiency of their administration. Same is the case with many other petro dollar economies; these countries have resources but lack the refining capacity. So in the end of the day they needs to import oil even for basic needs - the same oil they export will come back in the form of fuel but with higher prices.

What is happening to the amount countries are earning through oil export? Well, there is an excellent economic term defining it - oil curse. If Nigeria wants to change all these needs to go. Only reforms can save the country. First of its urgent to modernize the oil sector, without adequate refining capacity whatever they earned through selling the crude will evaporate by buying the oil from the foreign markets. At the same time the over-dependence on oil is dangerous, if the price of oil come down the nation will suffer a lot. So the country needs to diversify its income base and develop infrastructure - rail, road, electricity etc to attract foreign and domestic investment.

Now let’s consider the second case.

As far as the wholesalers selling the subsidized fuel on foreign markets is concerned, its government’s job to curb it. That why government’s across the world have departments like Customs, Revenue intelligence, foreign trade board, security forces etc. Another problem is wide spread corruption, people are not ready to believe that additional money coming from the rise of the fuel price will be used to develop infrastructure!!! So curbing corruption is very much important to get confidence of people in government.

Conclusion

Nigeria is changing after government started reforms in 2008 - modernizing banking system, curbing inflation, prospering telecom sector etc. Change is reflecting in the growth rates also. In 2008 economy grew by 6%, in 2009 it grew by 7% and in 2010 the growth rate touched 8.4% - decent rate for an African emerging market. But to sustain the growth government needs to push more reforms, but sensible ones. At the same time people also have to realize that, it will be very much painful to live in the reform years but if their country needs to place themselves on a firm track practices needs to be changed. After all, Nigeria needs to pull out 70% of her population from living below the poverty line.

Sajeev.

Photo Courtesy: wikipedia

Death in Ethnic Violence crossed 3000 in South Sudan

A village in South Sudan - In the expectation of a normal life

Last year many people across the world especially in Africa thought that finally there will be peace in Sudan. If not economic progress at least the fighting will stop, the oil money will help the country to develop infrastructure and provide basic facilities to the people. These were some of the hopes and aspirations when the country becomes independent in last year after a plebiscite. But the future kept something else in its reserve – deadly cattle raids and massacres.

Well it didn’t take much time to realize that peace is still a mirage in this part of Africa. After independence, when one enemy left the screen it didn’t take much time to find another enemy in the home itself. In the recent cattle raids and following massacres more than 3000 people are already killed - and there is all possibility that the number might increase as the tribes are still fighting. Cattle raids and tribal violence were not rare in Africa. It is part of the region’s history for some time. Modernity only made these tragic adventures and bloody sports of opposing tribal’s much more lethal and tragic by providing AK 47s and other guns.

According to the reports,

"According to Joshua Konyi, the commissioner of Pibor County and a Murle, 2,182 women and children and 959 men were killed, 1,293 children were abducted and 375,186 cows were stolen...He said Lou Nuer fighters had mercilessly hunted down civilians who were cowering in the bush. Other Murle leaders said hundreds of women had been chased into a river, where they drowned...In late December, the column of Lou Nuer fighters began marching toward Pibor, burning huts along the way. The United Nations rushed 400 peacekeepers to Pibor, trying to defend the town alongside about 400 South Sudanese government troops"..

Well this small company of 800 troops may not be able to protect the tribes and defend the city of Pibor along with vast stretches of African Savanna. In the Middle East, politicians, economists, strategists are worried about the possibility of an Iranian blockade of Hormuz strait. Here in this corner of the world there is no space for any doubts, if the foreign troops are not deployed immediately there will be much more massacres.

Sajeev.

Image Courtesy: Wikipedia

Libya's future - A litmus test for Arabian Spring

Finally the fighting came to an end or at least we can believe so. Col Muammar el-Qaddafi who ruled Libya for more than four decades died in his home town Sirte (1). Along with that, common enemy for Lybian transitional government also gone.


Now what is in store for Libya? Will it be able to go fast in the path of democracy by conducting elections and drafting constitution or will it run towards a never ending struggle like the one currently going on in Egypt? Egypt was different, there was a professional army to take over; It is altogether different matter that, this professional army is yet to conduct a new election. Still the situation in Egypt and the other neighbour Tunisia - where more than two decade old government fell in to Arabian spring - is far from normal.

In Libya there is no trace of old army - other than the divisions move away from Qaddafi in the earlier stage, all that existing in this sparsely populated country is a transitional government backed by NATO and Western countries. After a long and deadly fight with Quaddafi loyalists people's expectations about a new regime will be high. Will the Transitional government be able to bring the country back to normal or the internal revelries will play the spoil sport?

We can only wait and watch, but the NATO and western governments should apply pressure and fully utilize their leverage over the new Transitional government to draft a new constitution and conduct free elections.

One thing is certain, the immediate future of Libya will be a litmus test for Arabian Spring. If Lybia is not going to stabilize soon it will be a blow for the Arabian spring. The possibility of new Arab springs in other countries will decrease, people may prefer stability to the chaos of revolution. If Libyans are able to draft an inclusive constitution and conduct free elections, then it will give new hope for Northern Africa and middle East and of course more problems for Monarchies and Dictatorships.

Will the Arabian spring extend or winter will takeover?

Sajeev.

(1) http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/world/africa/libyan-fighters-say-qaddafi-stronghold-has-fallen.html?ref=world

The wistleblower - An eyeopener for the UN?

It was an accident.I was searching for another topic and suddenly the review of 'The Wistleblower' came up. Curiocity forced me to read it full, check out the issue in newspapers and later watch the movie itself. Contrary to my expectation, the story was not about some sting sting operation to reveal the sex secets of top leaders or the corruption scandal. The issue was more serious - its about human trafficking and sex trade involving minors. What was shocking is the name of accused agency - The United Nations.

Movie started with the posting of Kathryn Bolkovac - a US Policwoman - to the disturbed Bosia. Here she finds out that the peacekeepers who are supposed to help the common citizens, are involded in the dirty trade. In the end, when her senior offices refused to act, she blow up the Wistle and for this action removed from the service.

You can read the news related to sexual assult accusation against UN peacekeepers at, Guardian, NewYorkTimes and The Hindu.

Accustions against UN peacekeeping missions in Bosnia is not an isolated incident. UN is running into problems, in other places like Democratic Republic of Congo, Haiti, Ivory Coast etc. This week, issue of sexual assult on an 18 year old girl in Haiti resulted in furious protests in that country. Accoring to UN, cases related to sexual exploitation and abuse reduced from 108 in 2007 to just 5 in this year(so far) - 85 in 2008, 63 in 2009, 33 in 2010.

But these type of incidents are affecting the image of UN. Sending peacekeeping missions to various problematic areas around the world is to help the people - who were already suffering heavily because of furious nature or ethnic violence. Aim is to make the affected people feel safe under the UN flag. In such a situation, if UN peacekeeping force itself is engaging such activities? Nowhere in the civilized world, sexual assult is considered as a counter terrorism method. These types of actions are gross violations of basic human rights. Moreover, if such type of activities are done by foreign armies, then for the affected people its not only a personal humiliation but humiliation of their national pride. If the guilty people are not properly prosecuted, it will only aggrevate the wounds.

In this case the member countries too have to cooperate with UN, as the peacekeers are enjoying diplomatic immunity it is important for the member countries to take necessary actions against the guilty ones. Zero tolerance policy should come out form the files to the grounds.

Sajeev.

Glimpses of Modern India's economic engagement with reviving Africa

Images are considered as powerful expressions of life, this is especially true in the case of Africa - Kevin Carter's photo of a vulture patiently watching a starving Sudanese child to die shocked soul of humanity. Over time stories of poverty and war brought much help to Africa; unfortunately it didn’t prove enough to guarantee peace and economic progress. Many countries fell in to the trap of never ending war and ethnic cleansing. Without enough foreign troops it was difficult to control the fighting war lords. Slowly but steadily Africa, rich in minerals and oils, become synonym for poverty, war crimes, refuge crisis, inter/intra religious conflicts, child soldiers, anarchy (in Somalia and some other countries), oil curse, blood diamonds, terrorism, horrible rape stories (from Congo) etc

However some good news are also coming out of the continent - like the economic growth of South Africa, return of elected leader in Ivory Coast, democratic elections in Nigeria, awareness about environmental protection in Tanzania, birth of a new nation - South Sudan, improvements in reducing the growth rate of AIDS etc.

At present, as the developed economies are experiencing slow down and the requirement for the resources are rising in the emerging markets, the pattern of foreign involvement in Africa also changed. Emerging markets are eager to associate themselves with Africa - to utilize the drops of oil and minerals coming from continent. As usual China wasted no time in establishing themselves in the continent. Chinese firms - backed by government - already made considerable inroads. Their 'no string attached' aid find much more favour among the rulers, as compared to the western aid which usually come with strict conditions. After all there is no need for improving administration as a pre-requirement for the majority of the Chinese aid.

Now India is also back in Africa after a long sleep. Its like the story of Rip Van Winkle, in which he is going back to home after a long sleep of 20 years only to find out that his town no longer looks the same. The difference between this story and that of India's one is, we slept for a longer time. When woke up we were as surprised as Charles Dodgson's Alice in the Wonderland. Almost all of the African countries got rid of their colonial rulers, but the irony is independence didn't results in democracy or peace. Now the Arab spring -  which already pulled down two regimes - offering some hope to the rest of the continent. However it is yet to see how far this will inspire the people from other parts of continent. Only time can tell.

It is in this situation we have to look in to the second India-Africa forum summit held in Addis Ababa. In which New Delhi promised,

$5bn line of credit for developmental projects over next three years,
$700mn for new institutions and training programs,
$300mn for a new rail line,
22,000 total scholarships for next three years,
India- Africa virtual university with 10,000 new scholarships,
900 training slots under IETC,
$2mn for African Union mission in Somalia,
Food processing cluster and integrated textiles cluster,
India - Africa University for life and earth sciences,
Centre for medium range whether forecasting.

Here the amount allocated to education required special attention. Education is the key for growth in any society. This will not only enable Africa to achieve progress in the future but also tighten the ties with India. We have to make sure that the students coming to India through scholarships will be able to lead their respective nations towards progress, democracy etc and will serve as a cultural bridge between Africa and India.

Both India and China are investing heavily in African mines, oil fields, infrastructure, power generation etc. This will certainly bring the much needed capital to African nations. But the question is what will happen to this capital? Will it simply end up - as another form of oil curse - filling the coffers of war lords? It is important for Africans to make sure that, they will not end up as a proof for Samuel Huntington's 'Clash of civilizations' theorem. At the same time both India and China have the duty to help them to form a new economy, not propping up another oligarchy.

Whatever be our commitment, it should improve the living conditions of common people in the continent. Africa saw more than enough dictatorships, colonial rulers, rising oil prices, draughts, severe famines etc. We should not fall in to the trap of propping up or supporting some dictatorships which Africans themselves don't like to have. Today or tomorrow, when Africans think about the powers who contributed to their uplift and progress, we have to make sure that our nation stands top in the list.

Sajeev.

Children of the Revolution - Flower Revolutions, Middle East and Beyond

Analysts are arguing about the ability of Flower Revolutions to change the thought process and political framework of North Africa and Arab heartland. Many of the analysis are concentrating on the future power equations in the area, how many autocratic regimes will be able to survive the uprising? How many people got killed and how many are yet to die? Will US, EU, UK, France etc will help them in attaining democracy? will these revolutions will slip in to the hands of extremists? who will be ultimate benefactors of the revolution, how it will affect the oil industry etc.

But one of the crucial point we often left out in these discussions is about the effect of this civil war like situation in children? How these lost years will affect there education? How many of them are already dead/crippled? How many are awaiting that fate? After all cluster bombs, shells, grenades etc can't differentiate between a small kid and an adult.

Here is a photo essay, which sheds some lights on this issue - "It's Their Country, Too"

Sajeev.

Libya - Stalemate?

"Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired, signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. The world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children" - Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1953

Jasmine revolution bring many changes to Africa and Wet Asia, it removed the fear from people's mind. After its first emergence in Tunisia, many Arab countries are facing the heat of revolution in one way or another. Even if we can't say Tunisia and Egypt switched to democracies (till now) at least there was a change in the government that too without a prolonged civil war.

But in the case of Libya many predictions went wrong. In this North African country - stage for historic tank battles in WW II- revolutionaries are yet to break in Tripoli.

But this prolonged battle already taken its toll in across the coastal area - both rebels headquartered in Banghazi (aided by international coalition air strikes) and pro-Qaddafi forces with superior artillery are unable to capture the whole country from opponents hands. Major cities and oil towns in the country like Zawiyah, Misrata, Sirte, Ras lanuf, Brega, Ajdbiyah etc are facing the heat from both sides.

There is no doubt that continuing air strikes (even if US opted out of active strikes) and freezing the assets will cripple the pro-Qaddafi army. But is it enough for the rebels to capture Tripoli? Events till now doesn't suggest that, what rebels lacking is a proper command and control structure, strategic organization, military skills etc. Without which it will not be easy for the rebels to capture Tripoli.

The limited air strikes from coalition didn't cut much ice. It stopped pro-Qaddafi forces from capturing the rebel capital Banghazi, but at the same time it didn't enabled the rebels to reach Tripoli. This effectively created messy situation, where the country is divided into two. Now if US is handing over the command to NATO and pulling out from air strikes, who will continue it under NATO's banner? Its to be remembered that wars can't be win solely by air strikes. If that was the case then US doesn't have to continue in Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam etc for such a long period. It has to be fought and won in the ground also. Now if nobody is focusing on regime change they what was the need for the air strike? It may extended the conflict but didn't take it into a logical end.

But the strength in international coalition front seems to be waning - US already ruled out the possibility of sending ground troops to Libya (US already overstretched their operations by prolonged conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq and the recent nuclear crisis in Japan) and other nations too may follow the suit.

The continuing war between the rebels and government in Tripoli will effectively wipe out the existing infrastructure in the coastal towns (if there is anything remaining) and destroy the oil facilities. The possibility of a split or a prolonged civil war can't be ruled out. We already know what will happen after decades long civil war - situations in Sudan or Somalia are more than an example.

If International forces are not ready to send the ground forces (the possibility is very low) and the rebels or pro Qaddafi forces are unable to gain the control of the nation in a specified time frame, then it will be better to have a UN brokered peace talks between Tripoli and Benghazi, at least they can look for a solution acceptable to each other.

Sajeev.

Results of a Revolution - Egypt and Tunisia

Tahrir Square during protests

Once Abraham Lincoln said "This country, with its institutions, belongs to the people who inhabit it. Whenever they shall grow weary of the existing government, they can exercise their constitutional right of amending it, or exercise their revolutionary right to dismember or overthrow it." But what will happen after dismembering or overthrowing the institutions? Well Immanuel Kant also have to something to say about revolution, "Perhaps a revolution can overthrow autocratic despotism and profiteering or power-grabbing oppression, but it can never truly reform a manner of thinking; instead, new prejudices, just like the old ones they replace, will serve as a leash for the great unthinking mass."

Did anyone expect a revolution in North Africa and Middle East? A political change in Tunisia or Egypt? Till some months ago not much people expected about the possibility of a revolutionary wind flowing from Mediterranean to Arabian sea. And now the word Jasmine is giving sleepless nights to various regimes across North Africa and Middle East.

The principle of sufficient reason states that anything that happens does so for a reason. In the case of flower revolutions also it is not wrong. It may be unemployment for some people for others it may be poverty, for the rest it may be some other reason. But the root cause for many of the revolutions have more to do with the representation of common people around the table of power than the table of power itself.

If representation of people is the biggest challenge in autocracy it is the biggest advantage in democracy. Democracy provides a way for common people to express their concern and voice, regime knows that they have to face the people after four or five years. If you have any doubts about it read the election manifesto of various parties in India - it's another matter that many of the points mentioned in the election manifesto will remain there safely till next election. But representational democracy - with all its  flows- gives the feeling that he/she too is a part of the system, at least they have a say in the governmental policies.

Often autocratic regimes are acting on their own. Here a small number of individuals will be responsible for most of the decisions and its implementation. In such a scenario if the dissatisfaction in regime's policies went too far, then even a small spark can explode it. In the recent chain of events people of Egypt and Tunisia forced their head of states to step down. But did they able to bring a complete revolution in these countries?

Do you think that a single person is responsible for all the events - good or bad; progressive or repressive - in a country, even if it is autocratic? Do you think that replacing a single person will correct all the flows of the system? You can argue that a single individual may be responsible for shaping the system, but once the system is in place it knows how to survive.

Simply replacing one name with another will not cut much ice. At this point people of Egypt and Tunisia are able to replace the head of the state, but will they be able to sustain that momentum to bring a complete change to the system? Will they be able to force the system to work on improving the living environment?

This is the time to create a strong democratic and political institutions, to lead the country forward. But this is as much as or tougher than changing the name of the president. Will they be able to do it? Only time can tell... 

Sajeev.

Photo Courtesy: Wikipedia