India - Vietnam: Revival of old ties

Halong Bay in Vietnam - UNESCO World Heritage Site

Recent agreements between India and Vietnam already generated much attention for all the wrong reasons. China feels threatened that India in collusion with Vietnam is working against their core interests. The relationship is getting evaluated in Indian media circles as a reply for Chinese support of Pakistan. But how far all these allegations and counter allegations are true? Lets look at the India - Vietnam relations in general and the new agreements in particular.

What can be the attractions of a relationship between a nation laying on the shores of South China Sea and another one laying on Indian ocean? Is it only because of a common big neighbour, with her rapidly expanding economic and defence power, includes the areas close to the borders of both nations in her core interest list? I beg to differ, I can't swallow the simplistic interpretation that mutual defence interests is the only relationship between India and Vietnam, security partnerships can be one of the objectives - an important one - but the relationship much more than that.

In these days of global village phenomenon, a country will lose more on declaring enmity or acting in that way with another one - which too is an active part of global economic village. If anybody believes that the relation between Vietnam and China are like the one between India and Pakistan they are viewing the relations through a narrow prism. The problems in South China Sea and the Islands in it may play a spoil sport but its not so bad.

In the same way, there is no reason for Chinese or Indian press to believe that each move by New Delhi in ASEAN is solely aimed against China. Yes, as a strategy every nation will play a balancing of power to feel more safer in the presence of a strong nation - even if it's a friendly one. So it's quite natural that South East Asian nations may like an active engagement with India just like the one with US, although in a lower level.

We are yet to touch the main question, defence pacts solely defines the relation? The answer is no, its is also economical. For example, economies needs new customers and new sources of revenue, just like cows needs fresh grazing grounds. To offset the losses in one market or to reduce the heavy dependency on one market, economies needs to expand to new regions. After all no one wants to put all their eggs in one basket.

Indian Premier Dr. Manmohan Singh

Let us come back to the question of India - Vietnam relations. These relations didn't sprang up suddenly, it evolved over a period of time. Historically Indic kingdom 'Cham Pa' had an impact on Vietnamese art and architecture, India was one of the countries strongly condemned US action during the Vietnam war. If we are considering the economic relations India granted the Most Favoured Nation status to Vietnam in 1975, signed bilateral trade agreement in 1978 etc. Both nations are part of Ganga-Mekong cooperation.

Indian Oil exploration activity in Vietnamese waters, which China objects, itself had an history of more than two decades. According to the press releases by ONGC Videsh the agreement signed by PetroVietnam and ONGC Videsh limited (OVL) is intended for

"...developing long term cooperation in oil and gas industry and shall be in force and effect for three years. Some of the key areas in which both the companies are desirous to cooperate are related to the exchange of information on the petroleum industry, exchange of working visits of authorities and specialists in various domains of the petroleum industry, new investments, expansion and operations of oil and gas exploration and production including refining, transportation and supply in Vietnam, India, and third countries according to the laws and regulations of their countries..."

The relationship itself dates back to 1980's when Hydro Carbon India limited (later renamed as ONGC Videsh Ltd) signed a Production Sharing Contract with PetroVietnam (PV) on 1988 for Block 06.1. Later, during the 2006 regular bidding process Block 127 and Block 128 in Phu Kanh basin were awarded to ONGC Videsh Ltd. In offshore Block 06.1 operated by British Petroleum, ONGC Videsh holds 45% share. Company decided to relinquish Block 127 -offshore deep water water block- to Petro Vietnam as it is unable to find any Hydrocarbon there and the drilling is differed to 2012 in Block 128. These data essentially indicates that the Indian exploration for Oil and Gas in Vietnamese waters have a long history. The new agreement talks about the expansion of that activities and more interactions in Petroleum sector, its not a declaration of an axis or nexus against any entity.

It is essential for India to increase the interactions with Vietnam as it will enable us to get a strong foothold in ASEAN. This should be followed by rapid expansion in trade (bilateral trade between the two nations is only $2.7bn) links with Vietnam in particular and ASEAN in general. Both India and Vietnam clocks impressive growth rates (Vietnam registers a growth rate of 6%+ from 1990-2005, eventhough it declined during the economic crisis (6.8% in 2010). To sustain these rates and bring more people out of poverty both nations need to expand bilateral and multilateral trade. Allowing more visas to Vietnamese to visits the Budhist sites in India, providing scholarships to students, joint Naval excercises and regular port vists are some of the ways to expand the ties.

This relation is about continuation of old political, cultural ties and expanding the baskets of cooperation to security, trade, development etc. Even though the situation in Indo-Sino border, South China Sea remains as a major irritant in the relations of India- China and Vietnam - China respectively, there is little possibility for the problems from getting out of control unless the strategists in China starts reading too much in between the lines and misunderstanding them.

Sajeev.

Photo Courtesy - Wikipedia

ALH and Weapon Indigenisation policy of India (Are we on opposite poles?)

[HAL Dhruv ALH]

Now-a-days Indian Government is spending mind blowing amounts on the purchase of foreign weapons and other defence systems. No need to say, India became a favorite destination for foreign weapon manufactures – no matter whether it is fighter aircrafts, rocket launchers, missiles, submarines, tanks, radars etc. In India they are finding market for whatever they have.

As we moved from the socialist era to liberalized era (as someone pointed out; we can call this era as ‘half baked capitalism’, not fully there and not fully here) India opened her doors for everyone – which was until then favored the socialist weapons. Leaders know that we can’t fully rely on foreign weapons forever – in fact no country can. Not only because of the fact that the flow of money in the case of big ticket purchases are very high but also to make sure that we have to reach a stage where we can go on our own. But the recent activities in this area don’t offer much hope, at least for the near future. In order to analyze this situation we can take a look on the development and production of Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and the recent CAG report of it.

ALH, weighting 5.5 tonne, is a multi- role, multi mission helicopter fitted with two ‘Turbomeca’ TM 333 2B2 engines. The design started in 1984 and collaboration agreement was signed on 1984 (terminated in 1994 even though certain systems not developed, validated and integrated by that time), and five prototypes of basic version which was supposed to be certified in 1994 actually certified in 2003. More interesting thing is that the technical requirements finalized in 1979 by Army and Air force were not fully achieved and even now and the 74 helicopters supplied to the services are flying with concessions.

Problems started from the beginning itself (Its ok at that time as HAL is newly entering to the ALH world). Against the consultant’s advice for freezing the final design for successful implementation of product, company went on for open design phase- which they later defined as ‘concurrent Engineering Philosophy’. This led to 363 modifications carried out in 34 helicopters, and faced a large number of design problems during manufacturing. Apart from the design problems Advanced Light Helicopter turned out to be a heavier one. Earlier it was expected that the gross weight of basic version will be of 4 tons (Basic Empty Weight (BEW) of 2.24tones - BEW expected for TM 333 engine fitted in ALH was 2.55 tones) but in field (March 2002) it weighted 5.5 tones (BEW was 2.65 tones). Due to this over weight and limited engine power, the mission of 200 kg at an altitude of 6 km was not achieved.

In order to meet the additional performance requirements for weaponized version of ALH, an agreement was signed with Turbomeca(TM) in 2003 for the development of high powered ‘Shakti Engine’ which was to be certified at France in 2006. It was planned that HAL’s work share (read as ‘Indigenisation’) will be increased from 16.7% in phase 0 in 2009-10 to 73% in phase 4 by 2013, but due the failure in the creating the in-house facilities for gearboxes ( to be used in ‘Shakti Engine’), HAL outsourced that to ‘Turbomeaca’. The delay in this program also mirrored in its certification process (yet to be certified) and subsequently in the postponement in the delivery of 20 ALH.

In 1986 defence department observed that the ALH under development will be unsuitable in the attack role because of its overweight and volume. The Weapon System Integration (WSI) project was to be completed by 2003 is still in progress (as of Sep 2009). Selection of weapons, vendor were not addressed timely for the WSI integration project. As it didn’t meet its requirement Navy didn’t accept ALH in for Anti Submarine Warfare (ASW). The delay in the delivery of the ALH will also affect the defence preparedness of the country as it was supposed to be the successor of aging Cheetah/Chetak helicopters.

[Dhruv - Equador Air Force] [This photo is from Wikipedia and displaying under the CC 2.0 generic License]

During the practice in Bangalore (2007 Feb 1) an ALH (J-4062) was crashed; another one delivered to ‘Ecuador Air Force (FAE)’ crashed in 2009. Reasons for these incidents are attributed to the problems in control saturation. This also led to the non-receipt of a possible export order from Chile. This will put a question mark in customers mind about the confidence in company and its products. ALH was supposed to be an indigenous product, but in the current one 90% of value of material is foreign against the recommended level of 50%.

Indigenization is good; it will be the dream of every country to have in house production lines for advances weapons and to create a huge Military- Industrial Complex (MIC). But before going for indigenisation we have to do considerable amount of homework. First of all a delay of decades will make the product useless or outdated one. Problems will come for the first time but after two decades in development and considerable time in production the product is supposed to be stabilized – It can’t fly on concessions forever. When we are selling these products to the foreign customers, it’s our duty to make sure that; it is free of serious defects (if not all the defects). Otherwise it will affect not only create an adverse impact on the reputation of the producer but also affect the reputation of the country.

Now we are investing the huge amount of money for defence purchases ranging from multirole fighter planes to sub marines and night vision Equipment – the list is very long. Can any one imagine the thousands of jobs (if not lacks) these programs can create in India, if we had in-house production capabilities for these weapons? In such a case the amount of money flowing to the public exchequer as tax and profit will reduce our budget deficit (it may even show a positive margin – if we are not going to host any other games in the way we organized 2010 Common Wealth Games). Whatever be the reason – recession, famine etc. - there will not be any reduction in the sails of weapons for a foreseeable future.

[Army Aviation deploying US troops while training]

For the success of all these programs we should have a clear view on what to do. These types of helicopters (most of the defence products for that matter) already exist in the world with proven track records. We don’t have to reinvent the wheel. Instead bring the best brains in the industry and develop excellent training centers (not for the namesake) in the country. There will be many people in the foreign weapon production companies who will be ready to work for Indian companies if we are ready to offer considerable compensation and good opportunities in R&D. Hire them and train ourselves, the investment will not be a waste. Along with this remove all the restrictions on Indian private sector from entering the defence manufacturing industry. If the weapons we are manufacturing and using for critical purpose have considerable percentage (or full) of foreign parts, then what is the problem of having some parts from Indian players? This will not only result in the increment of efficiency but also transform our nation from a dumping ground for foreign weapons to that of a manufacturer and exporter level.

Sajeev.

Indian Navy required complete modernisation

[INS Mysore]

"No battle was ever won that was poorly planned. No plan ever succeeded that was poorly conceived"

In a country like India which have a coast line of 7417km and where majority of the trade is through sea, the importance of the navy is very important or that is what people think. But look at Indian Navy.

In Indian Navy up to 60's all the major ships were purchased from other countries. In 70's there was an aircraft carrier, 2 cruises, 17 frigates and destroyer. In 80's 6 new ships came and 9 phased out. In 80's 5 destroyer from USSR and 3 frigates joined Indian Navy. total =8.(At the same time 8 gone - 5 due to age and 3 to coast guard). In 90's we have 4 frigates of 70's, 5 destroyers and 3 frigates of 80's, 3 destroyers and 3 frigates(indigenous) and 3 from USSR. total 21 destroyers/ frigates.


[INS Jalashwa]

If we consider the case of submarines; we dont have any till mid 60's, 4 in the end of 60's, it reached 8 in 70's. 8 more in 80's and 6 more in 90's. After scrapping some submarines navy operated a total of 18 in 90's.Now its only 14 submarines.

The first 6 scorpene SSK submarines are expected to join the fleet in 2012 and the remaining 5 will follow at yearly intervals. Hope that project 75, project 76, Advanced Technology Vessel program all will go fine.

But MDL shipyard will roll out no more than 1 frigate/destroyer in 18 months. Some new ships will join the nave in next decade but atleast a dozen will be phased out. Along with this we have to improve naval aviation too.

CAG report of oct 2008, especially noted the poor naval fleet. The staggering notification is that no more than 48% of Indian submarine fleet is available for waging a war. Indian navy holds just 67% of force level envisaged in its 1985 plan. an some of the submaries are already outlived their service plan.

It is not easy to build ships and put it in service quickly. But its the time where China is moving aggressively in naval front; they are building ports after ports in Myanmar, Srilanka, Pakistan etc. They are also planning to add many more ships to their fleet. The race for the control of Indian ocean is already on, but the main competetiors are US and China. Even the ocean is named after India, If we didnt move swiftly in naval front we may become just observers in the race between US and China for the control of Indian ocean.

India's defence spending is only 2% of GDP; in China it is 7% and in Pakistan it is 5%. In the last year out of 7200 crore allocated to the navy only 4000 crore spent. Coast Guard too returned 200 crore back to the government out of their allotted 947 crore. Current budget allocation to coast guard is 1904 crore.

Its high time to give a special focus on Navy. Political or any other delays should not come in the path of Naval expansion and modernisation. Othewise the plan to turn Indian navy to a blue water navy will remain in plan only.

Sajeev

Modernization of Chinese Navy and other Asian countries

China - The biggest country in the world by population is completely modernising its navy. People's republic of China want to transform its navy to a blue water navy - which ofcourse the dream of every country. and ofcourse posed a tough competetion for india to upgrade the navy. Chinese also busy in building naval bases in other counties and expanding thier strength, the incoming bases in Srilanka and Pakistan are wonderful example of Chinese strategy.

“The Navy will move faster in researching and building new-generation weapons to boost the ability to fight in regional sea wars under the circumstance of information technology,” Navy Commander Admiral Wu Shengli told Xinhua in an exclusive interview– one week ahead of the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy.In addition to ships, aircraft and torpedoes, long-range missiles with high accuracy, submarines with superb invisibility and endurance and electronic weapons and facilities are also on the Navy’s agenda.He said the Navy would have more equipment for offshore repair, high-seas dispatch, large-scale rescue and supply among others.According to Wu, the Navy will incorporate the capacity for non-war military actions to the integrated construction of the army’s power, especially emergency offshore search and rescue and anti-terrorism activities. - - Report from Chinese Defence site.

Will this rise the arms rise in Asia? No need to look elseware for an answer. Defenitly India will focus more on its naval capabilities, not only India but Japan, and other neighbours of China too will spend more and more money in defence. Vietnam already reached an agreement to acquire 6 Russian Kilo class submarines from Russia for 1.8bn$ and another 3.8bn$ for 17 SU-27 and four SU-30 multi role aircraft. Vietnam is also building 10 Russian type Molnia class missile boats more projects are coming in.

The distant Australia to allocated a military budget of more than 70bn$ for next 20 years, Japan too is not sleeping. All these forms another arms rise in asia, which will produce huge profits for arms suppliers all over the world. China wants to be achieve a naval power in Indian ocean and Chinese seas equivalent to that of US in Atlantic, Middle East and Pacific.

How India will react to these developments? Will india go for one naval base in Srilanka? After Admiral Gorshgov deal will how NewDelhi enhance its naval capabilities? Wait and watch..

Sajeev

Who will control Indian ocean?

Indian ocean, the biggest ocean in the face of earth after Pacific and Atlantic, named after Indian subcontinent. Now in this globalized world, when Asian economies too attaining new heights, the commercial and strategic importance of Indian ocean is in its peak. The war in Afghanistan and Iraq, a nuclear crisis in Iran, the two important oil routes all multiplied the importance of Indian ocean.

India have long coastline, not only India but Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Australia many south-east Asian countries, oil rich gulf countries along with African continent shares the coastline of India ocean.

And now countries are competing for the control of the Indian ocean. But who will gain the control? US already have a naval base in Indian ocean, Indian also in the plan of trying to her navy to a blue water navy and China is building ports after ports in the region. Chinese too want to play a big role in the Indian ocean. Their strategy is commonly known a 'string of pearls’ and are increasing their presence in the region; Gwadar port in Pakistan is a good example.

Besides the Chinese built Pakistani port "Gwadar" they have keen interest in building more and more ports in Indian Ocean. Their latest pearl in the string is under construction in "Hambantota", SriLanka. Not only in naval bases; but they are expanding their fleet strength and deploying their vessels in the pirate affected regions, far from its shores. They may be many interests;

1) First and foremost is the problems with Taiwan, they want Taiwan to be a part of mainland China by diplomacy or by force. But integration by force will create an international backlash and they fear that at this time US may go for a naval blockade on them, by cutting the important oil routes to China through Indian ocean.

2) Chinese export driven economy is highly depended on the imported oil and majority of the oil goes through Malacca straits. They fears about the security of these channel in the times of a war.

3) The growing power of US navy may create more worries to them.

4) India’s growing power and influence in the region and India’s decision to create a blue water navy.

5) India’s look east policy, Chinese may fear that the growing economic relations with ASEAN countries may be transformed into a maritime relationship.

And for increasing their sphere of influence they are creating base after base in the Indian Ocean region. Whether its in Gwadar in Pakistan or in Myanmar they are fast and moving ahead in their mission but the question remains the same, will it solve all the problems of China? I think most of them are imaginary as a naval blockade in Malacca straits have a rare possibility as it will create chaos in the economies of Japan, China and Korea and its will not do any good for anyone except of course in war.

In peace time the Gwadar port in Pakistan will be a good help for China, as well as its base in Myanmar to control its oil interests. The more and more energy hungry economy of China want consistent supply of energy. But the problem with China is that it is highly depends on middle east and Malacca straits for its oil supply.

Chinese strategists thinks that any naval blockade in these regions by other naval powers like India and US will be disastrous for China. And they also fears about building a chain of bases around them. So they are going on their maritime doctrine of "Strings of Pearls" which starts from Chinese seas to Horn of Africa. And these bases are bases are constructing with full momentum in these regions.

They think that the Gwadar port in Pakistan will be a great help for them in terms of energy at the times of war. As they can overrun a blockade in Malacca straits by their enimies. But its will not be a good option for China, because,

1) The transportation of oil from the Gwadar port to mainland China is not at all a practical option . The construction and operational cost will be very high.

2) Moreover if there is a naval blockade in the Gulf of Persia, Gwadar port will remain useless.

3) Gwadar port is a small peninsula connected to mainland Pakistan through a chicken neck, in times of war if China want to support their port then they have to build high naval power in the surrounding region- otherwise cruise missile attacks will be enough for the port to become useless - but this will force India to take counter measures.

4) The region is very far from Chinese waters, and the primary concern of Chinese strategists will be in the waters surrounding Taiwan, as the problem is yet to be solved.

5) Its almost sure that Pakisthan will not like the loss of a port and a new war front in its door, if there is a Sino - US conflict. Moreover Pakistan will not choose the post of Washington's opponent for the energy cooperation with China.

But in peace time this port will able Chinese to put an eye on the trades through the region and may be act as a catalyst for a strong army and naval base in the future. This will also enhance their relation with Pakistan.

Where India is standing?

Its said that whichever country controls the India ocean they control the south east Asia. In the ancient time Hindu mariners controlled the Indian ocean for centuries, they propagated the culture and tradition of India across Indian ocean but after the down fall of Hindu maritime supremecy in the 13th century, Indians were unable to regain its past glory. In Mugal era politics is more concentrated on continental affairs and then British came into the theatre. They built a large ocean fleet and became the prominent force.

But after independence Indian navy grown and now the talks for changing the navy to a blue water navy is going on. But how long we can find happiness in talks? Whatever China doing they are doing it with unbelievable speed. For every costal countries the majority of the trade are through seas, and for the protection of trade and prominence in the egion they have to maintain a highly equipped navy will all capabilities.

Indian navy is one of the prominent force in Indian ocean, but will it be able to enlarge its prominence? Its operations in the time of Sunami earned a lot of good will. But will it be able to create a advanced blue water navy in the face of new Chinese strategies? Will it be able to secure new naval bases abrod and attain the capabilities of a bluue water navy? Can it be able to reach and excecute operations in the far Indian ocean sides, Atlantic, Pacific and South East Asian countries? The answers will decide what will be position of India in maritime affairs in the future.

Sajeev