Thursday, October 20, 2011

Libya's future - A litmus test for Arabian Spring

Finally the fighting came to an end or at least we can believe so. Col Muammar el-Qaddafi who ruled Libya for more than four decades died in his home town Sirte (1). Along with that, common enemy for Lybian transitional government also gone.

Now what is in store for Libya? Will it be able to go fast in the path of democracy by conducting elections and drafting constitution or will it run towards a never ending struggle like the one currently going on in Egypt? Egypt was different, there was a professional army to take over; It is altogether different matter that, this professional army is yet to conduct a new election. Still the situation in Egypt and the other neighbour Tunisia - where more than two decade old government fell in to Arabian spring - is far from normal.

In Libya there is no trace of old army - other than the divisions move away from Qaddafi in the earlier stage, all that existing in this sparsely populated country is a transitional government backed by NATO and Western countries. After a long and deadly fight with Quaddafi loyalists people's expectations about a new regime will be high. Will the Transitional government be able to bring the country back to normal or the internal revelries will play the spoil sport?

We can only wait and watch, but the NATO and western governments should apply pressure and fully utilize their leverage over the new Transitional government to draft a new constitution and conduct free elections.

One thing is certain, the immediate future of Libya will be a litmus test for Arabian Spring. If Lybia is not going to stabilize soon it will be a blow for the Arabian spring. The possibility of new Arab springs in other countries will decrease, people may prefer stability to the chaos of revolution. If Libyans are able to draft an inclusive constitution and conduct free elections, then it will give new hope for Northern Africa and middle East and of course more problems for Monarchies and Dictatorships.

Will the Arabian spring extend or winter will takeover?



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