One year back how many of you heard about an area called
Crimea? I guess, not much people. All of a sudden this area on northern coast
of Black Sea; once controlled by Cimmerians, Scythians, Greeks, Romans, Goths,
Huns, Byzantines, Golden Horde, Ottomans etc. became a political hot potato. If
that Malaysian plane episode was not there, this place would have occupied 80%
of international prime time.
A little bit of History
Crimea’s association with Russia officially starts with the conquest
of Crimean Khanate by Russian Empire under ‘Catherine the Great’ in 1783.
Russian Empire fought hard for this place. Later, from 1853-56 Russia fought
with French, British, Ottoman, Sardinia and their allies for Crimea; which
later came to known as Crimean war.
After Russian civil war, Crimea became a part of Soviet
Union. The twist came in 1954, when Khrushchev transferred this region to Ukrainian
SSR. He might not have imagined that, Soviet Union would break up. However, that too happened in 1991 and Crimea became a part of independent Ukraine.
Russian Navy
By the way let me tell you one more interesting fact here.
Russian Navy has three Military districts,
1. Western (head quartered in Severomorsk, Kaliningrad),
2. Southern (head quartered in Sevastopol, Astrakhan) and
3. Eastern (head quartered in Vladivostock).
You can locate these places in maps and see where they are. Vladivostock
is very far away from Moscow; Severomorsk opens to Barents Sea; Kaliningrad is
not geographically connected to Russia. This increases the importance of Black
Sea Fleet head quartered at Sevastopol (this place is in Crimea).
Containment after 1991?
US and western powers, might have thought about containing Russia
by wooing former Warsaw Pact countries to EU. Russia made some noises when some
of them eventually joined EU and later in NATO. Meanwhile EU expansion started
touching the doors of former Soviet Union member states. For Russia, Poland or some former Warsaw pact countries joining EU is one thing, and Ukraine joining EU is altogether a different thing. Problems in Ukranian capital, between groups having support from
Western Capitals and Russia’s own Victor Yanukovich only made the matters
worse.
Washington Post reports that, “Crimeans voted overwhelmingly
to leave Ukraine and join Russia, election officials said Sunday, capping a
heavy-handed campaign that blocked most voters from hearing a vision for any
alternative to unification with Moscow. Crimean election Spokesman Mikhail
Malyshev said the final result was 96.77 percent to rejoin Russia and 2.51
percent against.”
Will Putin annex Cremia to Russia? May be yes, in any way
there isn’t much scope for a truly independent Cremia.
What will happen next?
Will US and allies really impose crippling sanctions on Russia? Or all
these hue and cry are just for the sake of making some noises? I think US have
limited options here. They need Russian support in Syria, they need Russian
support in pulling out rest of their troops from Afghanistan. At the same time,
US needs to reassure their Eastern European allies on security. They also need to show to rest of the world that, they are in control.
However, it is difficult for European countries to impose
sanctions on Russian. Many of them depends on Russian oil and gas for fuelling
their economy. The main question here is, will Western European nations sacrifice
Russian relationship for Ukraine, which anyway doesn’t occupy much higher place
in European strategic calculations (if they have one)? I don’t think so.
US still holds some cards here. They can open their huge gas reserves to their allies on other side
of the Atlantic (in case Russia
reduced the oil and gas supply) to get their support. This will help US to get EU support for imposing tough sanctions on Russia. I think there will be some sanctions, and suspension on talks. Nothing further. This crisis may still
go in the same way of Georgian question went. Situation may change if entire Ukraine became unstable.
China and Syria might be smiling… for time
being South China Sea and Syrian crisis went further down in emergency list.
Sajeev.
PS: It is believed that the famous Victoria Cross – Highest Military
decoration of Britain introduced by Queen Victoria in 1856 - is believed to me
made from the Russian cannons captured at the Siege of Sevastopol.