When France Demanded 15mn franc from Haiti to recognize her independence

A facsimile of the bank note for the 30 million francs that Haiti borrowed from a French bank. Credit: Lepelletier de Saint-Remy, 'Étude Et Solution Nouvelle de la Question Haïtienne.'

Indians are aware of the demands to compensate former colonies by their colonial overloads for draining the economy; and to apologize for the crimes they committed during the colonial era. In India, there are three main demands, first one is to apologize for the massacre of unarmed civilians in 1919 in Jalian Wala Bagh; the second one is for the return of Kohinoor diamonds; now many people also demands compensation from the British for systematic draining of Indian economy.

I do not think the British will ever fulfill the second demand. After all, it will open pandora’s box and soon British museums will be empty. Apologizing for the massacre is something that they can and should do. Expressing sincere regret for carrying out such a brutal massacre of unarmed civilians by people in uniform; that too in a province which abundantly supplied so many men to fight for British in first world war and later in second world war is the right thing to do.

However, this article is not about India or British. It is about a poor country in the Caribbeans called Haiti and their former colonial overloads – the French.

French asked money for recognizing Haiti’s independence, which Haitians were not able to refuse. Paying the same not only destroyed their economy but also hampered the development of Haitians ins in every possible way for a very long time.  

I always thought Haiti was a poor country. After reading the article – 'When France Extorted Haiti – the Greatest Heist in History' - it looks like they were not and paying indemnify to French made them poor.

I will give you the tragic story in short. For reading it in detail, please open the link mentioned in references.

French brought slavery to Haiti in the 17th century. Later in 18th century, Haitians rebelled and declared independence in 1804. 

It was not that French simply looked the other way. They tried to arrest the movement. To assert French control, Napoleon sent 20,000 soldiers and as many sailors under the command of his brother-in-law. Most of the French army died due to yellow fever. Overall 50,000 French troops died in an attempt to retake Haiti. This includes a whopping number of French generals - 18. They were able to capture Haitian leader who later died in captivity. 

Slaves under the command of Jean-Jacques Dessalines, Alexandre Pétion and Henry Christophe continued fighting against French and decisively defeated them in the Battle of Vertières. After losing this battle, French gave up the idea of a North American Empire; withdrew 7000 troops from the island and sold Louisiana to US. Post-independence there was a massacre of whites in Haiti and a lot of white people migrated to Cuba and later to New Orleans.

Haiti was split into two. Pétion – ruler of the south - wanted France to recognize their independence and was ready to pay in lines of what the US paid to Napoleon for purchasing Louisiana (15mn francs). Louis XVIII rejected that offer. Later, Jean-Pierre Boyer reunited the country and he was determined to gain at least suzerainty.

At first Charles X, then ruler of France rejected that idea. He later sends a fleet to Haiti to restore the French monarchy. Under pressure, Boyer agreed to a treaty in which French recognized Haiti's independence if they pay 150mn francs.

“The present inhabitants of the French part of St. Domingue shall pay … in five equal installments … the sum of 150,000,000 francs, destined to indemnify the former colonists.”

Remember that the US paid only 15mn francs for entire Louisiana. That was 2,140,000 km2 of land. Louisiana was later divided into multiple states. Currently, this land is part of – ‘Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska; portions of North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado (east of the continental divide), Minnesota (west of Mississippi river), the northeastern section of New Mexico, northern portions of Texas, New Orleans, portions of Louisiana (west of Mississippi river), small portions of land in Canadian provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Compare that with Haiti, which is small.

Haiti borrowed 30mn franc from French banks and paid their first installment. They defaulted soon. Later in 1838 outstanding amount was revised to 60mn franc. That means a total of 90mn. To get the gravity of this number one need to see that the annual French budget at that time was one-fifth of this amount!!! Haiti stopped investing in the development of her citizens and continued to pay until 1947. In addition to paying the French, they also had to pay the interest to the banks for all the loans.  They got political independence but fell into economic misery.

Even then western nations refused to recognize Haiti immediately. Britain recognized her in 1833. US refused to do so till 1862.

Sajeev

References

You can read the full story here: When France Extorted Haiti – the Greatest Heist in History

Standing up to China: Vietnam going ahead with Oil Explorations in Vanguard Bank

Blue are Chinese Controlled and Green are under Vietnamese Control

Vietnam extended the operations of oil rig on Vanguard Bank to September. This is a direct challenge to Chinese position of owning everything within nine-dashed line (almost entire South China Sea). China already deployed a survey ship - Haiyang Dizhi 8(Marine Geology 8), and multiple coast guard ships to the area; apparently to disrupt the operations and force Vietnam to back down from its current stand.

World, especially South China Sea coastal states were (and still are) watching whether Hanoi will back down like in 2018 or go ahead with operations. Last year, Hanoi under tremendous pressure from China cancelled Repsol's contract. Four years before that, Chinese moved their own oil rig to the region, setting of anti-China riots in Vietnam. Later China withdrew that rig. Two years before that, in 2012, China took over Scarborough Shoal. Probably Vietnam learned lessons from past events and realized that, backing down is not going to help its claims in anyway. Interestingly this time, decision to extend the operations came right after US DoD released a statement backing Hanoi.

Vanguard bank is coming inside Chinese nine-dash line. But it is hard for anyone to back Chinese claims other than China. These pieces of uninhibited (mostly submerged) geographic features are energy rich and located around 200 nautical miles off Vietnams coast but more than three times of that distance from China. Nine dashed line runs as far as 2,000km (1,200 miles) from Chinese mainland to within a few hundred kilometers of the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam.

Vanguard Bank

History of Rig in Vanguard Bank

This rig is in a block which is part of 'Nam Con Son' project (developed by BP and ConocoPhillips in early 2000s) to carry gas by pipeline to mainland. Today, natural gas from Block 06-01’s Lan Do field provides approximately 10% of Vietnam’s total energy needs. Rosneft acquired TNK-BP in 2013 and they became block's operator. In May 2018, Rosneft contracted Hakuryu-5 to drill a new production well in 06-01 at a second gas field called Lan Do. Despite possibility of Chinese opposition, Rosneft went ahead with drilling at Lan Do and another field, Phong Lan Dai, in Block 06-01. In May 2019, Rosneft contracted the Hakuryu-5 to drill another well in 06-01.

CCGS Haijing 35111 - Dancing in Malaysian Oil fields

Since 2013, China maintains a near-constant coast guard presence around Luconia Shoals. Most areas of this geographic features are underwater at high tide but still claimed as islands by Beijing and Taipei.

Chinese coast guard ship (CCGS) Haijing 35111 started patrolling waters near Luconia Shoals. This area is near to coast of Malaysia’s Sarawak State. Haijing 35111's patrolling area (May 10 to 27 as per Automatic Identification Data - AIS) includes parts of oil and gas block SK308. This block is currently licensed to Sarawak Shell (subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell). Sapura Drilling recently won the contract for Sapura Esperanza rig to drill a series of new wells at natural gas field F14. This is one of three fields Sarawak Shell is developing in block SK308. As per Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative(AMTI), AIS signals showed that two Malaysian offshore supply vessels (OSV) - Executive Excellence and Executive Courage - apparently servicing the rig by travelling back and forth between the block and Sarawak coast. On May 21, Haijing 35111 circled provocatively close to vessels and came within 80m.

CCGS Haijing 35111 in Vanguard Bank

At the end of May, Haijing 35111 returned Hainan port for a few days before heading south again. Since June 16, it has been patrolling an area 190 nautical miles off the coast of South Eastern Vietnam. Patrols are centered on oil and gas Block 06-01, located northwest of Vanguard Bank on Vietnamese continental shelf.

On July 2, vessels which supplies Hakuryu-5 where leaving the rig when CCGS 35111 maneuvered between them at high speed, passing within 100 meters of each ship and less than half a nautical mile from the rig. After patrolling Block 06-01 for nearly a month, 35111 traveled to the Chinese outpost on Fiery Cross Reef from July 12 to 14, presumably to resupply, before returning to its post near the Hakuryu-5.

China rise stakes with Haiyang Dizhi 8(Marine Geology 8)

On July 3, Haiyang Dizhi 8, a survey vessel owned by China Geological Survey (CGS), began surveying a large area of seabed northeast of standoff at Block 06-01.

Haiyang Dizhi 8 is the one which undertook, oil and gas survey across two blocks - Riji 03 and Riji 27. In 2012 China declared these and seven other blocks off the coast of Vietnam open for foreign bidding. As expected, there were no takers.

This survey vessel is protected by other coast guard vessels. Haijing 37111 and two unidentified CCG ships have accompanied the Haiyang Dizhi 8 since July 3. Vietnam dispatched two Coast Guard Vessels - KN 468 and KN 472 - from Cam Ranh Bay. They are shadowing survey ship since July 4. AIS data shows that the survey ship continues to operate, surrounded by its CCG escort which boxed out Vietnamese vessels attempting to intervene.

Highly Dangerous Situation

Current situation is highly dangerous. What happens when one of the CCG ships, in its dangerous maneuvers, hit either Vietnamese Coast Guard ship or damage the rig itself. It might be an accident, but does any governments across the region will consider it as accident? Already reports of current confrontation is reaching Vietnamese public; this will only rise the anti-China sentiment further. Under such a situation it will be difficult for Hanoi to back down or give any concessions to China in any future discussions.

Dialogue is required

Solution for this perpetual tense situation in South China is constructive dialogues. However, ASEAN nations doesn't stand a chance if dealing with China one on one. As a group they have some power and can lead to meaningful discussions. Unfortunately, that is also not gaining steam. ASEAN is trying to come up with a Code of Conduct at South China sea; but pace is very slow. No one want to take the risk of upsetting China.

Current chair of ASEAN - Thailand - don't want to fast-track the negotiations. Bangkok is pushing the issue to next chair, which is interestingly Vietnam. Currently under ASEAN, it’s the responsibility of Philippines to coordinate dialogue between ASEAN and China. They will be in that role till 2021. China probably want the code of conduct in place when Philippines is still in that position. In this case China might have to stand down from its claim of entire sea and everything under it. A settlement based on UN laws on sea with minor adjustments might be a good idea for trade and bilateral relations. 

Something positive

One major change we can see is, countries are sending their white hulled Coast Guard Ships to support their claims, monitoring waters instead of more aggressive posturing with naval ships. Coast guard is more of a law and order policing agency and this change indicates less aggressiveness from participants side. Probably a sign that, South China sea costal states including China want to deescalate things.

Sajeev

What makes current standoff interesting is, the joint venture company's Russian partner is none other than Russian oil behemoth Rosneft. Will Russia make some adjustments especially after recently concluded joint patrol with China over disputed Korean administrated islands in Sea of japan? It may not happen as it will upset their relations with Vietnam. Moreover, Resneft is just an operator. If Rosneft refuses, then Vietnam might find a replacement. I think Rosneft will be there. 

References

1. The Diplomat.
2. Foreign Policy
3. Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative

Notes

1. Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. All oceangoing vessels over 300 tons are required to broadcast this data.
2. Vanguard bank is guarded by three operational rigs in DK1 cluster. DK1 rigs are complex structure of steal on sea, where there are facilities to host small detachment of soldiers.
3. Vanguard Bank
    U.S. Board of Geographic Names: Vanguard Bank
    China: Wan'an Tan, 万安滩
    Taiwan: Wan'an Tan, 萬安灘
    Vietnam: Bãi Tư Chính
    Occupied by: Vietnam
    Legal Status: Submerged
    GPS: 7° 30' 49" N, 109° 39' 58" E

US expelled Turkey from F-35 fighter jet program

S-400 Missile Systems

Expulsion of Turkey from F-35 jet program is a major crisis faced by NATO in this century, this also marks the lowest point in Washington-Ankara relations. If expulsion is going through and US imposes sanctions under CAATSA then relations between two counties are going to worse and not reversible in foreseeable future (in the absence of any major events).

Current state of affairs between Turkey and US is not simply due to purchase of S-400 system from Russia. It’s an outcome of a long series of events.

Here we need to consider four important points

1. Turkey's inability to buy US/EU missile defense systems.
2. American Alliance with Kurds in Syria and Iraq.
3. Insecurities of Erdogan.
4. Russian powerplay.

Let's see what happened over the years.

Turkey has the second largest standing army in NATO after US. She is also considered as a bulwark between chaos in the West Asia and Europe. Though she is not a member of European Union, Turkey is a member of NATO from 1952 onward.

First Gulf War

During the First Gulf War, Ankara requested for air missile defense systems from NATO to defend against possible SCUD attacks from Saddam Hussein's Iraq. United States, Germany and the Netherlands deployed their Patriot batteries under NATO. Though designed during cold war time, Patriot defense system become legendary during first gulf war. Later, whenever requirements came, Ankara requested US(Patriot)/European (Eurosam SAMP/T) systems.

Buying new Air Defense systems

Later Ankara wanted to have their own missile systems with technology transfer and options to manufacture locally. A competition was initiated between Patriot PAC 2, Europe systems, Russian, and Chinese systems. US was not ready to transfer missile defense related sensitive technologies even to a NATO partner. Raytheon and US Department of Defense (US DoD) started negotiations. After a while, Syrian civil war started, and Erdogan became personally involved in discussions. Stunning US and NATO members, Erdogan announced in 2013 that Ankara is going to buy Chinese FD-2000 missile system. Chinese allowed some licensed production. However, in 2014 Ankara dropped Chinese offer and started a new round of bids.

Russia in Syria; Kurds and IS (Islamic State)

In 2015 Russia landed in Syria to support her losing ally Bashir Assad. Turkey and US were not able to agree on how to handle Russians. At the same time, US had to ally with Kurds in Syria and Iraq to halt the whirlwind of IS conquest of vast regions in Syria and Iraq. Kurds and Turkey are not in good terms, Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) is a designated terrorist organization in Turkey and on low intensity conflict with Ankara in South East Turkey. While Washington saw Kurds as an ally against IS, Ankara viewed them as threat to Turkey. At the same time, Kurds were the only reliable Syrian force to operate on both Syria and Iraq which has the capability to halt IS advance.

During this time, US announced the withdrawal of Patriot (deployed in Turkey since 2013) to Germany for maintenance and training. Though US deployed additional F-15s, Turkey felt themselves as vulnerable to missile attacks and probably lost confidence with systems owned by other countries.

Shooting down Russian fighter plane

In November 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian plane which reportedly entered Turkish air space. This brought up the possibility of retaliatory strikes from Russia. May be due to possibility of a war with combined NATO power, or other reasons there were no retaliatory strikes.

Turkish Military Coup and Fethullah Gulen

This was a game changer. In 2016 part of Turkish military tried to overthrow Erdogan when he was not in the capital. Coup was crushed. What followed next was a massive purge in military, civil services, academics etc. Whoever having any known/unknown/suspected link to Fethullah Gulen (Erdogan's erstwhile ally) found themselves in prison. Erdogan declared Gulen as the master mind behind failed coup. Gulen lives in US and Washington denied Ankara's request for extradition; citing lack of evidence. From there onward relation between Ankara and Washington spiraled down rapidly.

When Enemies become friends

Putin made the right moves and suddenly Ankara got a new partner - Moscow. Erdogan even went to the extent of suggesting that it is due the fault of a Gulenist pilot, Ankara shot down Russian plane. Putin saw a chance to cement the relations further and offered S-400 missile system (one of the most advanced in the world) to Ankara in July 2017. Two months later in Sep 2017 Erdogan announced that Ankara would buy S-400.

It's a known fact that US will never allow integration of F-35 with Russian made S-400 systems. For long US officials maintained that, “Russian missile system’s high-end radar capabilities could collect intelligence on stealthy F-35 if the two were used by the same country” and they won't let it happen. When S-400 deliveries reached Turkey on July 12, US announced that Turkey will no longer be part of F-35 program. In addition to that, Turkish companies which currently supplies 900 parts to F35 program will be replaced soon. This is going to cost around $600mn to US.

CAATSA (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act)

In addition to expulsion there is CAATSA to deal with. CAATSA sanctions will kick in when countries buy Russian made defense equipment’s. It is yet to see whether Trump will give a waiver (very unlikely) for Turkey. In case of any absence of waiver, there will be sanctions and Turkey will be moving closer to Russia.

Conclusion

Turkey is still a critical member in NATO and a long-standing US ally. Though geographically located close to West Asian and Middle East conflict zones Turkey doesn't have the influence matching its size. Though politically considered to be a European country, Turkey is not part of EU or any other European affairs. However, Turkey is aspiring to become a key player and want to recover the lost prestige of Ottoman empire. Apart from Syrian theatre Turkey didn't get a major role in other key issues. Turkey became a major player in Egypt when Muslim Brotherhood got power. However, the revival of military in Cairo (when Sisi got power) reversed it.

It might not be possible for Turkey to suppress Kurds who spread over four countries. Turkey might need Washington to have a meaningful dialogue with Kurds. To become a major player in Middle East and West-Asia Turkey has to deal with Iran and its Shiite crescent as well as Gulf monarchies and Wahhabi Islam. Neither Iran and not the Saudi Arabia is going to shed their role and without backing of Washington Turkey may not be able to reach there.

Economically also Turkey is not doing good. Adverse relations with Washington only created more problems in economy. In 4th quarter of last year, after currency crisis devalued lira (Turkish currency) by nearly 30% against USD, economy contracted 3%. It drove inflation to 15 year high, severely limited Turkish companies' ability to service foreign debt. Bad loans are creating problems in banking sector. As per Reuters poll, economy will contract 0.3 percent this year. Turkey requires IMF support in recapitalizing state banks and restructuring debt. Erdogan's ideas on interest rate policies are not helping the economy either.

A way forward

S-400 is already in Turkey, F35 integration with S-400 is politically impossible. However, Ankara and Washington can work out behind the scenes - probably an IMF package to alleviate Turkish difficulties and sale of some other weapon systems to Turkey. May be giving more say to Turkey on future of Syria; there are still options for Washington to work with. It may not be a good idea for Washington to turn its back on a long-term ally. Let's wait and watch.

Sajeev

Reference

1. Warontherocks
2. WSJ
3. National Interest

New Russia-China Military Alliance in Asia-Pacific?

Russian Air Force A-50

South China Sea is crowded - with oil tankers, commercial ships, naval vessels, newly minted islands, fishing boats, white hulled coastguard ships carrying flags of different countries. Chinese policy of transforming entire South-China Sea to Chinese lake is going to make it crowder. During these times 'Sea of Japan' was relatively calm. However, coordinated patrol (probably first ever) of Russian and Chinese planes on July 22 suddenly made it a point of interest.

Beriev A-50 airborne warning and control aircraft launched from Russia's eastern military district, joined two Tu-95MS strategic bombers and met up with two H-6K long range bombers and a KJ-2000 battle management aircraft in Sea of Japan. During its combined patrol, A-50 flew close to South Korean controlled island - Dokdo (also claimed by Japan, they call the island ‘Takeshima’) - and crossed South Korean Airspace over the island twice. First while it was going to East China Sea and second time, when it was coming back. South Korea launched her fighters (18 F-15K Slam Eagle and KF-16 jet fighters) to intercept the joint patrol and fired warning shots in quick bursts. Russia deny all of this, as per them, South Korean actions are 'aerial hooliganism' and 'unprofessional maneuvers'.

Apart from A-50 which crossed South Korean airspace over the islands, other aircrafts in this group violated self-declared air defense identification zones (ADIZ) of both S.Korea and Japan. 'Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ)s' are different from sovereign air Space. ADIZ is beyond a country's national airspace - beyond 12 nautical miles from host country's shoreline - where identification of aircrafts is performed. This allows host country more time to respond to a hostile airplane. However, ADIZ is not defined or recognized by any international treaty/law.

Japan also scrambled her fighters in response to Russia-China joint patrol. As Japan is a party to island dispute, they condemned actions of all three - Moscow, Beijing and Seoul.
This incident revels some significant changes which may become very important in near future in South and East Asian theatres.

1. Institutionalized military relationship between Russia and China

Moscow’s relationship with Beijing is growing strong day by day. Earlier, the relation was based on economic necessities of both nations. Russia needed to diversify its petrochemical consumer base, they can't have all their gas and oil going to EU through Ukraine with whom Moscow has an adverse relationship. Hence, energy hungry China gave them some maneuvering room in case of a future US/EU sanctions due to any Russian adventurism in Eastern Europe. At the same time, China also need an alternate oil and gas supply route which doesn’t pass through Indian ocean (right under the nose of Indian and US navies) and then through geographical chokepoint known as Malacca Straight. It was a marriage of convenience. It won’t be wrong to say that Russia was a bit reluctant to go for a full Chinese embrace. Chinese also didn’t want to identify as twin brother of Russia.

On military side, Moscow withheld supply of fighter jet engines (fearing the duplicates popping up on next day). However, this changed later. Currently China is planning to buy 5th generation Su57E fighter jets. This is in addition to Su-35 fighter jets Beijing is already buying from Moscow. China got possession of first batch of S400 missile air defense regiment last year. Slowly, this marriage of convenience is going to the next level. Since 2012, both countries are conducting joint exercises and other consultations. Last year, Beijing participated in Vostok 2018 military exercises.

2. Freedom of Navigation in Air

US is frequently conducting Freedom of Navigation of Seas operations in South China sea. As none of the South China Sea nations has the power to stand up to China one on one basis; and in the absence of a regional military framework like NATO, China is free to do whatever they want to do. To protect her own and allies interest US led navigation operations are a problem for complete Chinese dominance. In addition to that, US military planes neither recognize nor identify on Chinese ADIZs.

Hence, joint patrol with Russia over a disputed island can be considered as a tit for tat action from Beijing. The question is, will this be a onetime event or going to be a new normal. This also depends on how far Russia is willing to go in upsetting her otherwise good relations S.Korea and Japan.

3. Russia boosting military assets in Russian Far East

Considered as a land based European power, Russia want to be known as a major player in Asian theatre as well. Strategically also, opening a new theatre in East Asia will take the heat away from its otherwise stalemate operations in Ukraine. For some time, Russia was boosting her military presence in Russian far east with deployment of new S-400 air defense systems and Bastion anti-ship missile systems.

4. Backfire on Russia

Inserting unnecessarily into conflicts against countries with which Russia has otherwise good relations is going to backfire. If Russia is sending signals that it is ready to accept political cost on behalf of China; then it is not going to go down well with Seoul or Tokyo. In addition to that, new military alliance will only push other countries further into US orbit. Chinese are more calculative and do in depth analysis before they get into something. I don't think, Chinese are going to back any Russian adventurism in Eastern or Central Europe. In the end only Russians will end up paying the price.

It is to be remembered here that, last year Moon became the first ever South Korean president to visit Russia, and both countries’ air forces established a hotline as well.

5. More problems for US

Infighting between Seoul and Japan over WWII War Crimes, forced labor and Comfort Woman cases already affecting the trade between two nations. These issues are driven by passion and nationalism which is not going to fade away any time soon. In addition to that, China brought Cambodia fully into her orbit. New Chinese naval base and Cambodia’s purchase of Chinese weaponry is going to enhance these relations. Philippines' president hardly says any word against China despite multiple issues in South China sea, where Philippines ended up victims. Other countries in the area has deep economic links with China and are heavily dependent on Chinese investment. Vietnam may an exception here.

In addition to that, Chinese are entrenching her position in South China sea by building and weaponizing new islands.

6. Indian Context

India need to consider new political equations in East Asia very seriously. For more than six decades Russia remained as a major ally and weapon systems provider. At the same time, we have a lot of outstanding border issues with China. In addition to that, China is an all-time friend of Pakistan. It is to be remembered here that China blocked Indian demand for UNSC declaring Masood Azhar as terrorist numerous times. China also blocked India's entry to NSG.

In this situation, a Moscow-Beijing military alignment is not good news for India. Russia's movement to Chinese orbit is only going to push India further away from Russia and more to US. Moreover, if Russia is going to sell the same equipment to China - which Russia is selling to India now - there is no point of buying more from Russia.

7. China-Korea Relations

After deployment of THAAD missile defense system by Moon's predecessor (Park Geun-hye) China-South Korea relations spiraled downward. This also led to street protests in China and caused an estimated $10bn loss to S.Korean business. It is believed that, later S.Korea under Moon conceded to Chinese demands - No further US Anti-Ballistic missile systems, No integration to US led regional missile systems and no trilateral military alliance with US and Japan. In this situation, why China made this move?

It is to be remembered here that; China generally don't act on impulsion. They always move with a well thought out strategy. If we take this into consideration, then Beijing might have assumed a calculated risk. Current Korean - Japanese relations are not in good shape. Hence, patrol over a disputed Korean administrated island - which Japan also claims – may be enough as a rebuttal for US freedom of navigation operations on sea but not enough to push Korea to the other end. We will see in coming days whether Chinese crossed the line, or they just pushed the line little further. US under current administration is passive on issues related to South East Asian security framework. Hence some adventurism may not invite any big push back.

Crossing boundaries and firing warning shorts is risky. It is to be remembered here that, a Korean Air Lines flight (from New York City to Seoul via Anchorage, Alaska) was shot down by Soviet Su-15 interceptor after Boeing 747 was deviated from its original planned route and flew through Soviet's prohibited airspace due to technical problem. All 269 people on board were killed in that incident. Hope that, all stake holders will careful enough not to cause any accidents.

Sajeev

Note 1:

As per Reuters report, "Japan regularly scrambles fighters to intercept Chinese and Russian aircraft that fly close to its territory, with 999 such intercepts in the twelve months that ended on March 31".

Note 2:

In order to avoid taking sides with either allies, US call this island - 'Liancourt Rocks'.

References

1. WSJ
2. SCMP
3. National Interest

Fighting for future: US vs China

Huawei HQ in China

One thing which is very clear to those who follows US actions against Huawei is - it’s not about Huawei; it’s about future of supremacy in technology.

In past half century they faced this situation twice. First with USSR, which is now dubbed as space race era. With the end of towering USSR scientists Kirill Shchelkin, Yulii Khariton, Andrei Sakharov, Mstislav Keldysh, Boris Vannikov, Sergei Korolev etc USSR's technological challenge came to an end. After death of Sergei Korolev (which was accelerated by various Soviet programs), Soviets were not able to continue with their supremacy in space. Slowly but steadily leadership of USSR became more interested in political survival and maintaining military strength rather than funding huge S&T programs. With the disintegration of USSR that also came to an end.

Later it was Japan. Her supersonic cruise in all spheres of economy and technology seriously threatened US supremacy. However, Japan was US ally and their supersonic growth came to abrupt halt in early 90s. Though Japanese firms kept on investing in technology and maintained leading position they were never able to be the Japans of 80s.

Now decades after victory in space race, US is facing tough competition from anther rising Asian power - China. China became pragmatic and broke shackles of ideological dogma during Deng era and started sprinting. Unlike Soviets (who were able to remain as single country due to military might), Chinese are more coherent, focused, planned and certainly do not want to make repeat the mistakes of their erstwhile neighbor. It’s a different matter that in Xi era, China looks more like moving towards Soviet's way).

China is pushing hard in Space. In response, US recently created a new space command and pulled back NASA from its cash strapped, less ambitious vision. Focus also changed from Atlantic theatre to Indo-Pacific especially in South China sea. In both cases US has an upper hand. However, when it comes to technology (especially in Telecom, AI, Face recognition etc) it’s a different ball game. In fact, lot of patents in this area are with Chinese. In facial recognition and associated technologies, there are hardly anyone who can compete with Chinese.

US don't have any companies with the stature of Huawei in telecommunications sector. Sure, they have Cisco, but they are in a different field. Then Qualcomm, again in related but different area. ARM is British (or Japanese because of Softbank?). We hardly heard anything about AT&T Bell which pioneered a lot of earlier innovations for a while. Bell Labs are currently under Nokia which is a Finnish company. You may be remembering another company called Western Electric. They underwent many transformations (became Lucent in between) and now under Nokia's umbrella. Then there is Ericson. Hold on... Ericson is Swedish.

Looks like US also understand this. After all they blocked sale of Qualcomm to Singapore based Broadcom on national security grounds. Investments by any Chinese firms to US companies holding key technologies were also blocked citing national security reasons.

In fact, all major 5G, high end telecom gear manufactures are non-US companies - Huawei (with over 100bn USD in revenue), ZTE, Nokia, Samsung and Ericsson. Now, you may be thinking what so special about 5G. Why US is worried?

5G is a major variable in future technological landscape. It’s going to revolutionize Telecommunication networks, Internet, Industrial IoT, Control of remote and critical infrastructure, Entertainment and Multimedia, Smart Vehicles and driverless cars, Transportation, Low latency machine communications, Smart homes, Smart city development, Security and surveillance etc.

US may probably never been in this situation for at least two centuries. While US was pumping billions of dollars for non-winnable wars in Afghanistan, Iraq etc Chinese pumped many billions into research as well as for investing in key western companies. They made state champions and created alternatives for major western technology giants. It is another matter that, during this sprint they hardly cared about intellectual property rights and patents. What US saw when they took a break in fixing Afghanistan and trying to get out of Iraq was Chinese leading world's transition to 5G!!!

Panicked, they acted fast, targeting leading Chinese companies Huawei, ZTE. ZTE almost came to its knees before US relaxed sanctions. Huawei was added to sanctions list. Following that Google pulled Huawei’s Android license. This means, Huawei phones can't use Android OS (I think they can still use opensource part of Android) and google services including play store.
Was Chinse companies’ victims?

I don't think anyone describes Chinese companies as pure victims. Main accusation against Chinese giants are theft of trade secrets and surveillance for Chinese state. When US asked Canadians to arrest Huawei's CFO (Meng Wanzhou - daughter of founder Ren Zhengfei) charges were theft of trade secrets and violations of sanctions against Iran. As a matter of fact, company founder Ren’s resume includes working for 'Information Technology research unit' of PLA (Chinese Army).

A little History of Huawei


2003 - Networking firm Cisco accused Huawei of intellectual property theft. Cisco later dropped the suit.

2005 - RAND Corporation study, commissioned by US Airforce (USAF) - noted that, "Huawei maintains deep ties with the Chinese military, which serves a multi-faceted role as an important customer, as well as Huawei’s political patron and research and development partner."

2007- FBI interviewed Huawei’s founder, Ren in 2007 in relation to potential violations of US trade sanctions on Iran.

2008 - Companies efforts to buy 16% stake in 3Com (provider of anti-hacking software for US military) was blocked.

2010 Motorola filed a lawsuit accusing Huawei of corporate espionage, but later settles with the company

2014- T-Mobile sued Huawei. Later US telecom companies excluded Huawei from their contracts

Reuters reports that, "A major Iranian partner (Skycom, a private company registered in Hong Kong) of Huawei Technologies offered to sell at least 1.3 million euros worth of embargoed Hewlett-Packard computer equipment to Iran’s largest mobile-phone operator in late 2010". Problems is as per reports, Ren’s daughter, Meng Wanzhou, served on board of Hong Kong firm. This firm is also considered as front-end for Huawei.

As per the same report, “an Iranian job recruitment site (Irantalent.com) describes Skycom as “a leading telecom solution provider” and goes on to list details that are identical to the way Huawei describes itself on its U.S. website: employee-owned, selling “solutions” used by “45 of the world’s top 50 telecom operators” and serving “one-third of the world’s population. On LinkedIn.com, several telecom workers list having worked at “Huawei-skycom” on their resumes. A former Skycom employee said the two companies shared the same headquarters in China. And an Iranian telecom manager who has visited Skycom’s office in Tehran said, “Everybody carries Huawei badges.”

Iranian project was to double prepaid customer capacity of Iranian telecom operator from 20m to 40m. As per this proposal (marked as Huawei confidential) requires HP hardware - one server, 20 disk arrays, 22 switches and software - in Tehran and Shiraz as part of hardware design. Total project cost was around 19.9mn euro. Same report states that, "...China’s ZTE Corp, a Huawei competitor, had sold or agreed to sell millions of dollars’ worth of U.S. computer gear, including HP equipment, to Telecommunication Co of Iran, the country’s largest telecommunications firm, and a unit of the consortium that controls TCI."

As per US authorities, Huawei "...retained control of Skycom, using it to sell telecom equipment to Iran and move money out via the international banking system… banks unwittingly cleared hundreds of millions of dollars of transactions that potentially violated economic sanctions Washington had in place at the time".

Another allegation is, Canicula (allegedly linked to Huawei) had business operations in Syria, another country that has been subject to U.S. and European Union sanctions.

Financial transactions via Skycom came to light during an HSBC internal investigation. HSBC was trying to dismiss criminal charges filed by US Department of Justice for violation of U.S. sanctions.

Security Risk

US intelligence agencies also fear that, Huawei equipment could contain 'backdoors' for Chinese state espionage. Huawei vehemently denied these claims. However, Australia and New Zealand went ahead and banned Huawei from building their mobile phone networks. Austria is trying to reduce overwhelming Chinese influence in their country. British are yet to ban the company but expressed reservations. It’ hard for British to say no to Chinese money during and after Brexit process.

In fact, Chinese law require companies to assist in national intelligence work. Well, you may be thinking isn’t US companies cooperate with US government in their intelligence gathering. Well, it’s a good questions and we know the answer from Snowden papers.

Ownership of Huawei

Ownership of Huawei is one of the most interesting puzzles in the game. You might be thinking founder Ren Zhengfei is the owner of the company. Interestingly no. He owns around 1%. Huawei is not a publicly traded company and never sold shares to public in last three decades. As per records, Huawei Technologies is wholly owned by a holding company called Huawei Investment & Holding. This holding company has two shareholders, Ren and Huawei’s labor union (Union of Huawei Investment & Holding).

Interestingly Huawei shares are different from normal shares. These shares can't be transferred to another or owned by nonemployee. If an employee exit Huawei, then company buys all shares back. If employee have certain seniority, then they many not buy it back. Labor Union, elect members to Huawei’s Representatives’ Commission, which in turn elects’ members of the board of directors. Union doesn't have any control over the operations of company.
Accusation (which Huawei trying to discredit but so far unsuccessful) is that Chinese party, military or government has significant control over Huawei.

Why American's Act Now?

China is very different from all other US enemies who are a threat to US interests. For e.g. whatever Russians do, they don’t pose a significate threat to US outside old USSR sphere of influence (except in Arctic). Moreover, Russians are neither investing in future nor cared about anything in economy other than Petro-gas and selling military weapons.

Iranians are a threat to US allies in Middle East including Israel. However, Iran won’t directly attack Israel.  In addition to that, Iran's strength is Oil and gas and its geographical position and influence over insurgencies in neighboring countries. Though Iran has a powerful army, its decades behind in military technologies and halfway across the world. Even minor disruptions, in global crude supply might not affect US market as they already became a net exporter of Oil due to significant shell oil extraction over past decades.

North Korea, despite all its grand standing; and Afghanistan don't pose any threat to US technological supremacy. As far as Europe is concerned, most economies (other than Germany) are cash strapped and they themselves looking for foreign investment (yes, including Chinese). Germany is a close US ally.

Made in China 2015 – 2025 - 2049

Huawei P30 phone with triple lens

With China its different. Chinese strength is not coming from any Oil and Gas deposits. China is the factory of world. After decades of building duplicates, they are moving towards original manufacturing. Getting contracts across the world from road construction to 5G rollout.

China aspires to be world's leading technological power. They came up with a plan – which released in 2015 - aims for developments in 10 key sectors by 2025. They also plan to achieve 70% self-sufficiency by 2049. Many of these plans violates many WTO provisions. Crashing of solar panel industry is a case in point. We will discuss this in another article.

Another issue is market access. While western markets are open for Chinese export, she put in place serious restrictions on opening her own market (which is very huge) to non-Chinese companies.

For investing or doing business in China foreign companies must enter into joint ventures with local firms. These agreements also required foreign firms to share key intellectual property and advanced technologies. Some rules were related later.

China also happens to be leading exporter of rare-earth metals. These metals are critical for electronics and battery manufacturing.

What will be Chinese reaction?

I don’t think Chinese will make any hard decisions. They think a lot before taking decisions. After all its the land of Sun Tzu. They will even wait till Trump’s term is over.

Some Chinese may be arguing for banning Apple. Will they do it? Very less chance. Apple phones are as Chinese as any other Chinese phones. Out of 800 suppliers for Apple approximately half comes from mainland China.  Why should they shoot on their own foot. However, Chinese users may choose not to buy Apple phones.

Many policy analysts argue that Chinese may ban export of rare earth metals. If US pushed had it is possible that, they might reduce export of rare earth metals. However, complete ban may not happen. After all, why to create significant disruptions in global chain when Chinese sits at a very important position in it.

How it is going to affect others?

Rough Waters for Huawei

Exclusion from using Android may not create significant impact in home market. However, in other markets - say, India - they won't be able to sell phones without Android OS and Google Services. They will face dip is revenue from overseas operations and without US chips (HiSilicon might not be able to provide a replacement for ARM or Qualcomm in immediate future) it’s going to be a hard struggle. Chinese government may compensate Huawei in one way or other. China may also try to get some reprieve for Huawei by making it as a bargaining chip in future US – China trade talks.
Costlier Telecom equipment’s

Equipment’s form Ericson and other companies will be costlier. This will delay 5G rollout and make it costlier.

Trade War

Tit for tat taxes exports between US an China will be a step back for freedom of trade, liberalization and globalization.


Alternate pressure point

For a set back here, China can create problems for US and allies elsewhere. May be boosting North Korea a bit. Building some more artificial islands in South China Sea etc.

Middle- East, Eastern Europe and Iran

A significant event in Middle East or Eastern Europe may take all the focus away from current problem and negotiations may go on slowly behind the scenes.
US

China will try to reduce import of US agricultural produce which will create problems for US president in key agrarian states.  After all US presidents must worry about elections unlike their Chinese counterparts. It is even possible that, China may simply wait till current US administration changes.

Whatever happens we are going to see a new technological race between US and China in coming days. Though it disrupts global supply chain and make a dent to global growth rates, we will eventually see more investments by US and China in science and technology. We will see more space explorations and even colonization’s of moon and mars. Who knows we may even bring fuel from moon to power machines in earth?

Sajeev.


References.

1. https://in.reuters.com/article/huawei-iran/exclusive-new-documents-link-huawei-to-suspected-front-companies-in-iran-syria-idINKCN1P21MKhttps://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/26/hsbc-probe-helped-lead-to-us-charges-against-huawei-cfo.html
2. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/26/hsbc-probe-helped-lead-to-us-charges-against-huawei-cfo.html
3. https://qz.com/1535995/the-full-list-of-crimes-huawei-is-accused-of-committing-by-the-us/
4. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/29/huawei-could-be-part-of-china-deal-but-cant-work-with-iran-marc-short.html
5. https://qz.com/1627149/huaweis-journey-to-becoming-us-tech-enemy-no-1/

Photo Courtesy: Wikipedia

Trouble brews in Indian Ocean – Maldives

Political cyclones are not new to this island nation. Current sequence of events has its root in 2011 when then president Mohammed Nasheed faced opposition campaign in the name of protecting Islam (that’s what opposition claimed, even though there was hardly anything supporting their claim) and subsequent mutiny forced him to resign. Later his deputy Mohammed Waheed Hassan became president. Nasheed was later arrested, charged with terrorism, convicted and sentenced for 13 years in a flawed trial. He was later released to exile. This flawed trial exposed judicial system which lost all her credibility.

Nasheed was again elected in 2013 elections. However, Supreme court intervened and annulled results. Once again it became clear where court’s loyalty stands. In second election Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom (former president Goyoom’s half-brother) was elected as president.

Yameen took the country in a different direction. He considerably enhanced relations with China. Xi Jinping - first Chinese leader to visit - reached Maldives in 2014. China got huge infrastructure projects - bridges, ports and airport. Like other countries currently in Chinese orbit, Maldives is also accumulating huge external debt. As per IMF projections, Maldives’ external debt presently stands at 34.7% of GDP. By 2021 it is expected to reach 51% of GDP. Interesting fact is, two thirds of this debt is to Chinese. Yameen also started a crackdown on political dissidents, arrested his vice president and even declared a 30-day emergency on may, 2016.

As per a Guardian article, "president Yameen has ruled with an authoritarian streak, and was accused of corruption, thuggery and international money laundering in an explosive Al-Jazeera documentary, Stealing Paradise. All senior opposition figures have been jailed or forced into exile, joined by a stream of Yameen’s allies, accused of treason, corruption and myriad assassination plots".

Independent journalism already breathed its last in Maldives. Foreign correspondents are barred and local journalists disappeared.

Supreme Court Judgement

In an unexpected turn of events, Maldives Supreme Court ordered release of all political prisoners (Maldivian Democratic Party’s Nasheed, Jumhoree Party chief Gasim Ibrahim and Adhaalath’s Imran Abdulla, former defence minister Mohamed Nazim, MP Faris Maumoon, former vice president Ahmed Adheeb, former prosecutor general Muhthaz Muhusin, chief magistrate Ahmed Nihan and local businessman Hamid Ismail) and reinstated 12 members of parliament who had been stripped of their posts. These members were earlier defected from ruling party and joined opposition; reinstating them will make ruling party a minority in parliament.

Court reasons that, political prisoners were tried without due process, violating constitution and human rights treaties. Court also noted that, prosecutors and judges had been 'unduly influenced' and investigations are 'politically motivated'.

What make current turn of events unusual is Supreme Court's 180-degree volte face. It was same Supreme Court which gave a flawed verdict against Nasheed and annulled election results. Now, court got some spine and ordered release and retrials of president's opponents.

Supreme court got some backbone, but we don’t know how long it will be there. Supreme court was also a part of whatever went wrong in Maldives. As per Guardian report, "...Handpicked by Gayoom during his rule and illegally given life tenure under the new constitution in 2010, the judges have been at the centre of most of the Maldives’ recent ills; at least 50% of the 200-odd judges and magistrates have less than seventh-grade education, while a quarter had actual criminal records, including convictions for sexual misconduct, embezzlement, violence and disruption of public harmony"

Yameen’s Retribution

Judgement didn’t go well with president Abdulla Yameen. He refused to comply with order and ordered imprisonment of Chief Justice, judges and other dissidents (which includes former president and Yameen’s half-brother Maumoon Abdul Gayoom). To control all organs of state, he even ordered a state of emergency for 15 days.

Radicalization 

While political leadership was fighting each other, and suppressing democracy, country’s youth were getting radicalized and joining IS. As per news report, "Maldives has likely contributed more fighters to Syria and Iraq on a per-capita basis than any other country not directly engaged in the conflict".

Impact in Economy

Current set of political events are hitting Maldives major industry – her bread and butter - tourism. Travel adversaries are out from several countries.

Elections

Elections were scheduled for later this year. Now it’s not clear whether Yameen will go ahead with election while his popularity is hitting rock bottom. Even if conducted whether it will be fair?
After arrests, Maldives President Yameen sent his Minister Mohamed Saeed to India and China. India refused to see him. Official line is dates are not suitable. Special envoy is also to visit, China, Pakistan as well as Saudi Arabia.

India’s Role

What India will do with crisis in her backyard? China already made considerable inroads to this island nation and unlike India, China (for that matter Pakistan and Saudi Arabia) won’t find any problem in siding with strongmen who suppress political dissidents and democracy.

Nasheed’s Request

Nasheed publicly asked India to send a special envoy with military backing. Back in 1989 India intervened (Operation Cactus) to stop overthrowing of then Maldives government. Situation is considerably different this time. In 1989, it was as per the request of Maldives ruler to support democracy (with full public support). Now also the objective is to support democracy; but now ruler is the root cause of all problems. Moreover, Maldives is radicalized a lot. We don’t know how far the people and Maldives own defence forces view such a move.

In an interview with The Wire, Nasheed told, “I am not asking necessarily for Indian troops or Indian boots on Male… we don’t think that simply asking him (President Yameen) would do the trick… How you assist your neighbour in the 21st century in my view would be rather different on how it was done in the 20th or 19th century. I am sure we can use our imagination and I am sure that people in Delhi would have a variety of tools to be able to use in achieving a given objective”.

Simply talking to Yameen is not going to change anything. Sanctions will only drag the problem and create hardship for Maldives’ population. Military operations on the other hand neither be swift nor supported by whole public.

India asked Yameen government to implement Supreme Court order and described herself as “disturbed’ by actions of President. Will India take any steps to force the government to do the right thing?

Chinese don’t know how India is going to react. They want to test waters and see how far India will go in resolving the crisis and whether India will accept extra regional powers to intervene in her own backyard. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang said, "The international community should play a constructive role based on the principle of respecting the sovereignty of the Maldives instead of taking actions that may complicate the current situation". See the word 'sovereignty' here, it’s an indirect indication that others should not intervene.

Well if things go out of hand, China will make the situation to its advantage and entrench to Maldives forever. I think forcing Maldives government to conduct an independent election under the watch of foreign observers as early as possible  is the best thing which India and international community can do at this moment.

Sajeev

References

1. The Maldives’ political soap opera won’t end without judicial reform - JJ Robinson: The Guardian
2. Maldives Supreme Court Orders Release of All Opposition Leaders, President Yameen Defiant - The Wire
3. Nasheed: ‘India Has the Imagination and Tools to Get its Way With the Maldives Government’ - The Wire
4. China says international community should play constructive role in Maldives - Reuters
5. Chinese company bags Maldivian Island on 50-year lease - ET
6. Maldives gives airport contract to Chinese firm during Xi's visit - Reuters

Afrin Conundrum

Even a year back, Afrin - Kurdish enclave located in North Western Syria - may not be famous outide the country. This city is located less than hundred kilometers from Syria-Turkey border. However, new geopolitical game for supremacy of northern Syria changed all equations.

Kurds, who are the biggest ethnic minorities without having a country to call their own - were widely persecuted in Western Asia. Fall of Saddam in Iraq finally gave them something - a financially viable and stable autonomous territory. Then came Arabian Spring and Syrian revolution. Quick fall of biggest cities forced a withdrawal of forces from Northern border leaving the place open for Kurds. They made full use of it by  establishing a stable area. Then came IS, which made quick territorial gains in Syria as well as in Irag. Suddenly IS territories looked bigger than many countries. However the atrocities they commited turned tglobal voice against them. Again Kurds rose in to prominenace and they become an ally for US for defeating IS.

This entire situation didn't give any happiness to another major stakeholder in Syrian revolution - Turkey. Growing Kurdish influence close to their border raised alarm bells in Ankara. Problem is some Turkish areas are dominated by Kurdish people; Turkey is in a state of war in those areas. Many Kurdish leaders - like Abdullah Ocalan(founding member of Kurdish Worker's Party - PKK) - are already in jail. New found power and territorial control of Kurdish fighters (People Protection Units - YPG) is something which Turkey can't digest. They fear the possibility of Kurdish nation from Turkey to Syria to Iraq. Even Iran is not free from this fear.

Turkey is determined to break this rising power. Now Turkish fighter jets are pounding Afrin (Operation Olive Branch); Turkish Army is standing at border; ready to move in. What make the matter complicated is, YPG and US allies in war against IS. US even planned to raise an army - with core as YPG militia - to protect the area. This is more than what Erdogan can accept; rising nationalism in Turkey is not helping the matter either. Turkey's all out fight against YPG - a major piller in US plans for Irag and Syria - will push two major NATO powers in opposite sides. Turkey under Erdogan is not going to relent anytime soon.

This entire situation plays in to the hands of two other stakeholders in Syria - Assad Government and Moscow. Moscow's relation with Turkey is not good, after they shot down Russian fighter planes. Relations are slowly improving now. But in order to get a free hand in Afrin to pound, Turkey might have to do some consessions somewhere else. Which will help the government to take control of more territories.

Earlier Turkey wrested control of 100km territory west of Euphrates from IS. But this time, they are going to face battle hardened YPG fighters trained by US. More than that, its a Kurdish city and inch by inch city warfare will take its toll on any professional army. What more, YPG can't simply surrender the city to Turkish and militia supported by them. The thing is, if YPG fighters withstood Turkish onslaught and keep the control of Afrin then it is going to be a game changer. Ofcourse it is not going to be the end. Government forces and Russian assets will be moving towards Afrin sooner or later. Here US is going to be in a tough situation, it's difficult to go against their NATO ally; at the same time its difficult to abandon an ally in the middle of a battle field.

I guess US negotiating with Turkey and make some kind of deal in Kurdish areas will be beneficial for US, Turkey as well as Kurds. In case they can't reach a deal then it will be beneficial for Assad and Moscow.

Sajeev.

Chinese Method for Testing the Waters

USNS Bowditch

The cat and mouse game is on in South China sea, where most of the waters are claimed by China (nine dashed lines). What China don’t know is, how far US will go in South China Sea disputes to protect allies. Will they walk the talk? No one knows. Hence, China is doing what they can do at best. Test the situation… What make this game more interesting is, the actual policy of Donald Trump towards China when he comes to power.

Latest in the chain of events is the capture of US underwater drone. Pentagon claims that it is a scientific research vessel. However, it is quite possible that the vessel was researching Chinese navel assets deployed on contested waters. It is believed that, while launching underwater drone US ship - Bowditch - was just 50 miles away from Subic Bay (former US Navy base in Philippines). This means Bowditch might be outside of nine dashed lines.

As expected Philippines, didn’t make any hue and cry after the incident; which happened within the waters claimed by them. Philippines hardly said a word when new satellite images uncovered weapon installations on artificial islands around Spartly chain.

There may be two reason for this. First, Philippines navy is not in a position to take on Chinese; second, country is looking for Chinese investments; and finally, current president Durette wants more warm relations with China and slowly drifting away from US.

Well US protested formally and after a lot of exchanges Chinese agreed to return the captured Drone.

This incident happened days after US President-elect called Taiwanese president; which was first such official contact by any US president (or president elect) after Jimmy Carter recognized China on 1979. China didn’t take it well.

Where it is heading?

1. I believe Chinese is testing US; to know what extent America will go?

2. Most of the actions by Chinese till now are below a carefully defined threshold; beyond which US has to respond. Problem is, exactly where the threshold is?

3. These types of incidents will cement Chinese authority on entire South China Sea. When one of the contested party – the Philippines – is not ready to protest, US can hardly do much.

4. This incident also raise questions about the future of ‘US – Philippines’ relations

5. No consequence for Chinese actions will only make them bold to go ahead with this policy.

Sajeev

Capturing new Market and Scoring Political Points - Chinese goods in Nepal

China - Nepal border crossing (Photo: chinanews.com)

While shouting matches, selective leaks on de-monetization, re-monetization keeps politicians and strategists busy here in India; China took her relations with Nepal to its next level. Latest in the string of events is the opening of new trade route which will wide open Nepalese markets to Chinese goods. This will finally break India’s monopoly in Nepalese markets.

New era in ‘Nepal – China’ relations started when trucks carrying goods from western city of Guangzhou arrived at Nepalese capital Kathmandu. Goods worth USD 2.8mn travelled a lengthy 5,200km till Xigaze by train and the rest 870km by road. Goods coming through this lengthy road won’t be cheap unless China is going to subsidize it. But China will definitely do it; after all Nepal is not just a market but a new political theatre.

China also announced her plan to connect Nepal with its rail network through a new line from Gyirong. In addition to this, Chinese Telecom announced an agreement with Nepal Telecom to provide internet through new terrestrial cable.

Well, it’s good for Nepal after all they are not going to be fully dependent on India for goods and services. At the same time, this is going to make Indians uncomfortable.

Sajeev

Brahmaputra and Future Water Conflicts Between India and China

Entire Ganges, Brahmaputra and Padma-Meghna Basins

Mighty Himalayas are the water tower of South and Southeast Asia. More than 10 major rivers originate from Tibetan plateau - Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Mekong, Sutlej, Indus, Salween and Huang Ho (aka Yellow River) are some of them. All these rivers are critical to the life and well-being of millions of people live on their banks.

Brahmaputra River

2,880km long Brahmaputra originates from Tibet. There the river is known as ‘Yarlung Tsangpo’. Total drainage area of Brahmaputra river is 5,73,394 sq.km. This river flows eastwards through southern Tibet for a distance of 1,625 km; then at its easternmost point it takes a spectacular U-turn at Shuomatan Point (aka Great Bend) and enters India’s easternmost state - Arunachal Pradesh.

Here the river is known as Siang. After replenished by several tributaries, Brahmaputra enters Assam (aka Asom). Brahmaputra is the life blood of Assam; after slowly flowing through Assam, Brahmaputra enters Bangladesh. In Bangladesh, this river is known by the name Jamuna. During his course in Bangladesh, Brahmaputra joins with Ganges (known as Padma in Bangladesh) and Meghna and flows to Bay of Bengal. Before embracing the sea, this combined river system creates the largest delta – Sundarbans.

By the way, this river is also shared by Bhutan.

Importance for China, India and Bangladesh

In terms of water flow and length, Brahmaputra is the largest of Indian (though all parts are not in India) rivers. From time to time, this river creates floods in Assam, thereby enriching the soil in that state. As far as Bangladesh and the delta is concerned, water from Brahmaputra is their lifeblood. In a not so distant future when climate change threatens the patterns of Monsoon and many rivers are expected to go dry, Brahmaputra may be the answer – at least for some time. Declining water flow in Brahmaputra will also make its estuary more saline and adversely affects the livelihoods of millions there.

The Problem

Problem we are currently facing is the huge demand for water and electricity from northern and eastern Chinese cities. As population is exploding in cities of coastal China, demand for water is also rising exponentially.  However, water is not something which china can manufacturing cheaply. It is altogether a different matter that, the run for becoming the manufacturing capital of world also heavily polluted most of the water resources in China.

So, Chinese found a simple solution, redirect water from Tibetan plateau to coastal cities. It doesn’t matter how complex the engineering or natural calamity it is going to create. Looks like the Chinese government is almost determined to divert water from the great rivers of south to provide for hungry north and coastal area.

Dams

In order to accomplish the task, Chinese government is going to create a series of dams in Brahmaputra - Zangmu, Gyatsa, Zhongda, Jiexu, Jiacha, Langzhen etc.

Another solution is to break the Great Bend and let Brahmaputra flow to China (however this is a huge engineering challenge) or lift the water from Brahmaputra and move it to coastal area (this is also an engineering challenge). Chinese romanticism with huge projects and their gigantic chest of money may even make this possible.

Zangmu dam is the first in the series. Built at an altitude of 3,260m, this 26-turbine dam is expected to generate 540 MW of electricity. Its height will be 116m and length 390m. This dam will have a width of 19m at top and 76m at bottom.

It is believed that Jiexu, Zangmu and Jiacha are within 25km of each other and approximately 550km from Sino-Indian border.

Recently China operationalized $1.5bn Zam Hydropower Station. Located in Gyaca County, Shannan Prefecture, and built by ‘Gezhouba Group’ on Brahmaputra river this project seems to be the largest in Tibet. This dam is also considered as world's highest-altitude hydropower station and the largest of its kind (this dam will produce 2.5bn kwh/year)

China claims that these dams are basically designed as run of the river and not meant for diverting or storing water. However, there isn’t much data available and its extreme secret nature is very much suspicious.

Fragile Ecosystem

Even if it is not meant for water diversion, these dams (for that matter dams currently under construction at Indian side of Himalaya) are extremely dangerous.

Gorge of Brahmaputra is located in a highly seismic zone and prone to earthquakes. In China, there is a strong lobby advocating large dams (in India as well). They should have learned lessons from three gorges dam.  

An excellent paper 'Mountains of Concrete: Dams Building in the Himalayas' published by an NGO International Rivers - People, Water, Life’ explains,

'One of the biggest changes to occur in big dams in the past 20 years is the rise of Chinese dam builders and financiers. China's dam industry has gone global, building hundreds of dams throughout Africa and Southeast Asia, but also Central Asia, South America, and the Himalayas'.

From the experience of flash floods and other disasters in Uttarakhand due to immense changes in the ecosystem and frenzy dam building activities we all should have learned the lesson. Chinese should be knowing better after three gorges dam. Costly Three Gorges project was marketed as the solution for all problems and ended up as the biggest nightmare.

Imagine the breakup of a huge dam in higher Himalayas. This will wipe out civilization at river banks in lower Himalayas. As we all know, Himalayas are one of the world’s youngest mountain range and highly seismic. We can’t even blame nature for disasters.

International Problems

Brahmaputra is not fully flows through Tibet; its waters are life blood for North-Eastern India and Bangladesh. When building dams in international rivers - that too in border areas – Chinese have to answer the concerns raised by lower riparian states.

Some of the mitigation actions both India and China should take immediately are,

1.       Make the details and design of dam’s public; or at least share it with riparian states.

2.       Let Indian officials visit the sites. After all, dams are not military bases.

3.       Chinese government should publish a white paper about their future plans for Himalayan rivers.

4.       We should also set up a permanent joint river commission for Brahmaputra. Commission should meet regularly (like Nile Basin Initiative or Mekong River Commission).

5.       Chinese should provide year around water flow data in Chinese side of Brahmaputra to India.

6.       A water sharing agreement.

Let’s start with these steps,

We should not expect that Chinese will provide the data just by asking. If that was the case, then this would have happened years ago. It is to be noted that, China has refused to join Mekong River Commission (they are only observers in the commission). In addition to that, dragon is yet to ratify UN Convention on Non-Navigable Use of International Watercourses. What more, there isn’t any water sharing agreements between Indian and China, even though many rivers critical to the very existence of Northern, Western and North-Eastern India starts from Tibetan plateau. 

We shouldn’t hesitate in demanding data. This is very much critical for India.

Sajeev

PS: It is believed that - in June 2000 - a natural dam on Chinese-controlled side of Brahmaputra broke free and caused massive flooding in Arunachal Pradesh. 30 Indians killed and another 50,000 displaced from their homes. Indian authorities charged that, China had withheld vital information that could have improved flood forecasts. This finally led to 2002 agreement by which China should supply river flow data to India during flood season. Problem is, this agreement covers for 6 months only. We are still stuck there. Chinese should provide around the year data to India.

References

1.       Wikipedia

2.       Tibetan Sun etc.
3.   Photo Courtesy: Wikipedia 

US and Cuba, finally ice is melting

Kerry at U.S. Embassy’s Flag-Raising Ceremony in Cuba

Recently I watched Godfather I and II (again). In second part, there was a scene where Michael Corleone said, soldiers are paid to fight but rebels are not; and there is a chance that they will win. Following sequence of events proved him right. Rebels took over and protagonists escaped to US.

Actual take over happened on 1959 January, when rebel forces led by Fidel Castro finally able to oust Batista. This event led to rupture of ties between Cuba and US. Later incidents like, Bay of Pigs, Cuban missile crisis of 1962, Cold war, Suspension of Cuba from Organization of American States (OAS), trade sanctions, Cuban support of MPLA in Angola etc only made it worse. Cuban missile crisis almost took the world to third (and probably last) world war. Last because there may not be enough people left to fight fourth world war. 

Cold war didn’t finish in this part of the world even after the breakup of USSR. However, a lot of this changed for Cuba. She lost her major benefactor – USSR and Rubles. Later Cuba found some solace in neighboring Venezuela and her leader Hugo Chavez. Like Castro, Chavez was also against US and Market economy. However, mismanagement of Petroleum reserves and fall of oil price in global market crushed Venezuela.

Cuba also witnessed an administrative change - leadership changed from fiercely anti American (but aging) Fidel to his brother Raul Castro. In US also Obama - who received Nobel Prize for Peace before he actually did something - tried to restore relations with Cuba. He may already considering this as his legacy and probably want to make complete reset before he leaves office.

Last year, US re-established their embassy in Cuba and also received credentials from José Ramón Cabañas Rodríguez (first Cuban ambassador to US since 1961). 

Now Obama selected Jeffrey DeLaurentis (served as chief of mission for US in Havana since 2014) as new Ambassador. This is indeed a good move to normalize relations between two countries. 

Obama administration is also trying hard to relax restrictions on trade and travel to Cuba.

However, an effective progress also requires the lifting of trade embargo which requires help from Congress. Without this, there are limitations to improvements Obama can make. Will Congress rise to the occasion and repeal the ban before Obama leave office? Will the new government continue the polices of rapprochement? Will Raul government go ahead with administrative, economic and political reforms? Let's wait and watch. 

Whatever it may be relationship between two nations is certainly going to improve and I believe Obama will be able to leave office with some justification for the Nobel Peace prize. 

Sajeev.

Photo Courtesy: US Embassy Website