Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Mamta's exit from UPA II, will government find consolation in foster home?

Finally, Mamta Banerjee’s TMC quit the government over her disagreement on FDI in multi-brand retail and diesel price hike. Question still remains, whether she will modify her decision tomorrow and resolve to support UPA from outside.

Will government survive?

Government needs 272 seats in Loksabha (out of total 543) to survive. Currently, Congress (INC) has 206 seats - 66 seats short of majority. In her allies, there little chance for DMK (18) and NCP (9) to quit, at least for next one year. As far as IUML (2) and National Conference (3) are concerned it is close to zero. This will make the count to 238, still 34 seats short of simple majority.

Samajwadi Party (23) and Bahujan Samajwadi Party (21) have many reasons to support the government. Without generous contribution from Central government’s purses it may not be easy for SP to rule UP. BSP also has its own reasons.

Possible Scenarios 

One: SP and BSP supports government - will take the total to 281 [plus JMM(2) + 3 will make it 286].
Two: BSP walks out from Parliament in case of a non-confidence motion; then required number of voted will come down to 251. 238 + SP (23) + JMM (2) + 3 will make it - 266.
Three: Both SP and BSP walkout. Then the required majority will come down to 228. Congress and its staunch allies can reach this magic number.
Four: SP/BSP vote against the government. Difficult, but may be able to survive.
Scenario Five: SP and BSP vote against the government. Government may go down and next elections may come.

I think the possibility of Scenario one and two are very high. The scenario three is also possible.

Even if government went down, there is little chance for any other party to form a new one. Most probably, we may have to face elections. How many representatives - from both sides – dare to do that, after all close to two years is still remaining?


Even before UPA-II finally rang the bell of reforms, their managers may sure about government’s survival even in the case of TMC exit. All these may not need if Mamta agreed to support UPA from outside. Let’s wait and watch. If government withstands the exit of TMC, it may finally be able to go ahead with reforms (new allies may ask for generous concessions).


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