Future of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is in Limbo

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was a deal to create an American led trade coalition in Pacific rim. By the way, the deal excluded China. China may get an invitation later (may be once the rules are created). Well, China didn’t sit idle, she went on creating numerous other coalitions like Silk Road, Maritime Silk routes, Development Banks, Trade groups etc. As if it's not enough, China even started building islands in Sea.

12 nation group of TPP was almost a done deal until American presidential election fever kicked in. Final proposal was signed on Feb 2016 in Auckland.  This was after 7 years long negotiations. Now the deal must be ratified by participating nations.

Election of Donald Trump as next US president may put the deal in coffin. After all, he promised during and after elections, that US will pull out from TPP on his first day in office. By the way, it is very much possible that he may take a leaf or two from Mulayam Singh Yadav's play book and took an immediate U turn.

What I can say as of now is,

a.       Without US, the deal may not work. Japan, Vietnam and many other countries were ready for concessions because of the promised access to US markets. If US is not going to be there, then there is little incentive for them to do so.

b.       Another important point is abandoning TPP may be a blow for US allies in Pacific. It will give a signal that, US is not going to be there all the time. Those who were more afraid of Chinese hegemony may be willing to accept it and be more receptive of what China preaches. This will be a clear win for China.

c.       Nations can’t build good military relations without having a strong foundation of economic ties. Hence, in the long run US is going to lose control of affairs in this part of the world.

d.       Another possibility is rest of the nations may go ahead and conclude the deal.

Let's see whether Thrump will do what he preaches; or whether his promises will remain as promises forever. Only time can tell.

Sajeev

India on the verge of missing the wave in Mobility and Electronics – Again

Self-reliance, self-sustenance, country made goods - high sounding words like this resonated throughout the history of national freedom struggle and post independent India. It was like, we as Indians can remain isolated from the world (only preach good things to others) and manufacture all things we wanted. However, soon we realized that even in agriculture we are not producing enough. So, came PL470. Export quotas didn’t allow us to become competitive in global markets and import quotas made the best out of the hands of Indians.

We moved light years away from those days. Now BMW, Volkswagen, Honda, Toyota cars are carrying Indian families; Harley Davidson is roaring in Indian streets; Zara and Gucci are there in shopping malls; Johny Depp, Christian Bale, Peter Dinklage etc. are no more some guys in distant Hollywood but familiar household names.                                                                                                                                                                      

However, there were other side effects as well. On one side, we opened markets and started exporting software. On the other hand, India manufactured very less electronics items. Most of electronics goods currently available in India passed through assembly lines in China, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia etc. I can understand if we are importing huge quantity of oil, gas, minerals, rare earth materials etc. Nature didn't bless us with those items in abundance. I can understand even if it is food items; in a highly populated country it is not easy to grow all food items to feed 130 crores (1.3 bn) stomachs.

What I can't understand is, why we are still depends heavily on imports for electronics parts.

State of Mobile Phone Manufacturing in India

Consider the case of mobile phone manufacturing. This is same for computers, industrial robots, high end machines used in healthcare etc. as well.

A joint study carried out by IIM Bangalore and Counterpoint Researchers, analyzes the current state of mobile phone manufacturing in India states that,

1. Contribution of domestically manufactured mobile phones has increased from 14% (2014) to 67% (2016). Estimated to reach 96% by 2020.

2. 67% of the handsets manufactured in India contributes to just 6% of the ‘true local value addition’

3. Most of the OEMs are still importing Semi Knocked-Down components (SKDs).

4. Out of 50 facilities (OEMs, ODMs, EMS, component suppliers) involved in manufacturing of mobile phones in India; almost 3/4ths are Indian manufacturers, followed by Taiwanese (10%) and Chinese (10%)

In terms of number of smart phone users, India is second largest market. By 2022 we may have half a billion smartphone users. This means we are going to consume more than US$80 bn worth of components.

When we are standing at 6% in terms of true local value addition; China reached 70%; South Korea and Taiwan crossed 50%; What more; even Vietnam reached 35% and Brazil is at 17%.

As of now, the key components - PCB assembly, display housing, battery, camera, charger continued to be imported.

Earlier this year we reduced import duty from 29.44% to 12.5%. This made less incentive for OEMs to set up a factory here. However, keeping the tax high only take more money out of consumer's pocket. So increasing the import duty is not a good way to promote local manufacturing.

It is to be noted here that, there are some improvement in local assembly.

During the last 18 months, 40 new mobile phone assembly units and 12 new component/accessory manufacturing units have started in the country as part of Digital India initiatives

For the future

If we are not taking the rights steps now to produce high end electronic parts and equipment we going to lose a great opportunity.

Consider the case where we will be when,

a. 5th Generation mobile networks and equipment started capturing the market.

b. World will start mass production of automated industrial robots.

c. When the world switch more towards solar power and high end batteries.

The money involved here may cross billions and reach the order of trillions.

This is an opportunity which India can't miss.

Sajeev

GoI launched Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana (Gramin)

This project with a vision of ‘Housing for All’ in rural areas plans to provide an environmentally friendly, secure pucca (strong) house to every rural household by 2022.

# Target to complete 1 crore houses by March 2019.

# Minimum support of nearly 1.5 - 1.6 lakh INR to a household is available.

# An additional provision for bank loan up to 70000 INR.

# Selection of beneficiaries is based on data provided by Socio Economic Census 2011. This will be validated in Gram Sabha.

# Indented to provide skilling (45 day on site hands-on skill training) for 5 lakh Rural Masons by 2019.

# Allows over 200 different housing designs across the country.

# Large-scale use of local materials is envisaged.

# Each home is supposed to have cooking space, electricity provision, LPG, toilet and bathing area, drinking water etc. through convergence.

# Entire payments are through IT/DBT mode with Aadhaar linked Bank accounts

Recently Prime Minister saw over 40 building designs and distributed Sanction Certificates to a few beneficiaries from Agra. Hope that this program will provide a good house for those who otherwise can only dream about it.

For knowing more about the scheme please visit -> PMAY-G

Sajeev

GCC and Saudi have to stop discriminatory Air Strikes

It is easy to drop bombs from air; especially over countries which don’t have any good air force, powerful anti-aircraft guns or SAMs (Surface to Air Missiles). Aggressors don’t have to worry about anything, as they are not going to lose anything – soldiers won’t come back in body bags; don’t have to engage in high causality ground/city warfare; no need to maintain attack prone lengthy ground supply chains etc. Everything is perfect if there is another humanitarian crisis going on; Saudi got Syria for the same. This is exactly what is happening in Saudi led strikes in Yamen.

Explaining a little background,

Houthis began waging a low-level insurgency against Yemeni government in 2004. Multiple peace agreements were signed and later disregarded. During 2011 Yemani revolution, Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi declared their support for it and asked for then President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s resignation.

Conflict was going on between Houthis and Sunni tribes in northern Yemen; by September 2014 Houthi’s finally captured Sana’a (capital city) from government and forced President Hadi to negotiate an agreement. This led to the resignation of Hadi government.

A sequence of events happened. By end of 2015 January, Houthi’s seized Presidential compound. Later they dissolved parliament and formed a committee to govern the country. During this time, Hadi was able to slip out of Sana’a and traveled to his home town - Aden. From Aden he declared Houthi takeover as illegal and indicated his plan to remain as constitutional president of Yemen.

March 2015's suicide attacks on Sana'a Houthi mosques (four suicide attacks during mid-day prayer killed 142 people) changed the course of civil war. Houthi's renewed their campaign. It is believed that IS (Islamic State) carried out the bombing.

While this civil war is going on one side, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) made significant territorial gains in Yamen. IS also started gaining territory in Yeman.

For Hadi's part, he declared Aden to be Yemen's temporary capital.

Houthi’s and pro-Saleh army almost took over Aden. This caused Hadi to fled to Riyadh and met powerful Saudi prince Mohammad bin Salman. Later, forces loyal to Hadi recaptured Aden with support from Saudi Arabian government, airstrikes and shelling by Egyptian navy from sea.

Saudi led alliance accuse Iran of supporting Houthis. On the other side, United States was also a major weapon supplier to Yemeni government. Although weapons worth millions of dollars were missing after delivery.

As per news reports, Saudis along with eight other middle eastern countries - Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Sudan, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain, with logistical support from US are engaged in an air campaign against Houthi’s. Apparently Pakistan declined to join the bombing campaign (though they dispatched warships to enforce an arms embargo against Houthis). Alliance kept on striking positions in Sana’a which often led to massive civilian casualties.

This low profile but high causality war didn’t get much global attention due to ongoing high profile civil war in Syria. Due to humanitarian crisis in European borders and high decibel ‘US – Russia’ peace talks (other than the name nothing is peaceful) world is focused on Syria. As an enforceable peace agreement for Syrian war is nowhere in sight; and Assad and his allies started final assault to take full control of Syria’s largest city – Aleppo – world may not look in to Yemen any time soon.

Attack on Funeral prayers

Unlike previous air strikes this one on funeral prayers was a big disaster. Continuous strike on the building resulted in more than 100 civilian casualties. Saudi led alliance first denied the strike and later promised an investigation to it. I don’t think those kind of internal investigations will reach anywhere.

As per news reports, "Fighter jets from a Saudi-led military coalition repeatedly bombed a crowded reception hall in Sana where mourners were gathered after a funeral on Saturday, killing 140 people and wounding hundreds of others, according to Yemeni health officials and witnesses.... Tamim al-Shami, a spokesman for the Health Ministry, said at least 104 people had been killed and 550 wounded" - NYT

This attack might be result of wrong intelligence and targeting information. But this is not the first time they are making mistakes; earlier they hit a hospital which have connections with Doctors without Borders; then a food processing factory. All these mistakes are causing human lives, which makes it more important to stop air strikes. These type of attacks on unarmed people even amounts to war crime.

If Saudi’s want to defeat Houthi’s and truly believe in nation building (which even US failed to do in Both Afghanistan and Iraq) then they should not solely relay on airstrikes. There is point after which Saudi led GCC has to put boots on the ground and try to gain territories and stabilize the country. Anyone can bomb a poor country from air and push them to stone age combined by famine and lawlessness. I hope Saudi led GCC will realize this mistake. If they can’t go all the way, then don’t try to destroy whatever left in Yamen.

I agree that UN have little tooth left; but that is the only agency we got. Let the matter go to UN and let UN decide what the next step should be.

Sajeev

PS: “The crew of a guided-missile destroyer fired three missiles to defend themselves and another ship after being attacked on Sunday in the Red Sea by two presumed cruise missiles fired by Iran-backed Houthi-forces” - USNI News

References

1.       Saudi-Led Airstrikes Blamed forMassacre at Funeral in Yemen - NYT

2.       Wikipedia – Yemen Strike, Civil war history related articles.

3.       USS Mason Fired 3 Missiles to Defend From Yemen Cruise MissilesAttack – USNI

Indian Bridge Management System (IBMS) - Keeping up with Bridge safety

Gandhi Setu - India's longest Bridge

When I went to Bihar, I wanted to visit Mahatma Gandhi Setu built across Ganga river. After all, this is the longest bridge in India with a total length of 5.75KM connecting Patna to Hajipur. However, crossing this bridge was a nightmare. There were too many vehicles to cross and bridge was under repair. This repair process was going on for a very long time. What is supposed to be a good journey across Ganga turned out to be a hard one. I still wonder why repair work is going on forever.

This is the situation of Indian bridges. There is no comprehensive record of how much weight a bridge can handle, whether new generation super heavy trucks can use that, when to repair, when to decommission etc. There were reports when trucks carrying heavy weights – boilers for thermal power plants etc – had to wait in front of the bridges for weeks to get permission for crossing the same. In many cases authorities denied permission for crossing and the trucks had to retrace and take lengthy routes to reach destination. This resulted in schedule overrun for many projects.

However now there is a solution in sight - Indian Bridge Management System (IBMS)

Nitin Gadkari, Minister of Road Transport & Highways and Shipping, formally launched Indian Bridge Management System (IBMS). IBMS is being developed to create an inventory of all bridges in the country and rate their structural condition so that timely repair and rehabilitation work can be carried out based on the criticality of the structure.

IBMS aims to prepare a data base of all bridges in the country and detailing their structural condition so that timely action can be taken to repair the structures or build new ones in their place.

IBMS is the largest platform in the world owned by a single owner, with database that could exceed 1,50,000 bridge structures. So far 1,15,000 bridges have been inventorized, of which 85,000 are culverts and the rest are bridges.

National Identity Number:

Each bridge is assigned a unique identification number or National Identity Number based on the state, RTO zone and whether it is situated on National Highway, State Highway or district road.

GPS Coordinates:

Precise location of the bridge in terms of latitude-longitude is collected through GPS and based on this, the bridge is assigned a Bridge Location Number.

Engineering Dimensions:

Characteristics like the design, materials, type of bridge, its age, loading, traffic lane, length, width of carriage way etc. are collected and are used to assign a Bridge Classification Number to the structure. These are then used to do a structural rating on a scale of 0 to 9; each bridge is assigned a Structural Rating Number. Rating is done for each component of the structure like integral and non-integral deck, superstructure, substructure, bank and channel, structural evaluation, deck geometry, vertical clearance, waterway efficiency etc.

Socio-Economic:

Bridge Rating Number will decide the importance of the structure in relation to its contribution to daily socio-economic activity of the area in its vicinity.

Based on this inventory IBMS will analyse data and identify bridges that need attention. Further inspection will be carried out wherever required to improve the operational availability of the structure, enhance its life and prioritize repair and rehabilitation work. The data will help to decide which bridge needs critical attention, or which needs to be rebuilt.

This is indeed a step in the right direction.

Sajeev

References

1.       GoI Press Release
2.       Photo Courtesy (By Aksveer - http://www.flickr.com/photos/28028849@N02/3747115478/, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=10315522)