Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was a deal to create an
American led trade coalition in Pacific rim. By the way, the deal excluded
China. China may get an invitation later (may be once the rules are created).
Well, China didn’t sit idle, she went on creating numerous other coalitions
like Silk Road, Maritime Silk routes, Development Banks, Trade groups etc. As
if it's not enough, China even started building islands in Sea.
12 nation group of TPP was almost a done deal until
American presidential election fever kicked in. Final proposal was signed on Feb
2016 in Auckland. This was after 7 years
long negotiations. Now the deal must be ratified by participating nations.
Election of Donald Trump as next US president may put the
deal in coffin. After all, he promised during and after elections, that US will
pull out from TPP on his first day in office. By the way, it is very much
possible that he may take a leaf or two from Mulayam Singh Yadav's play book
and took an immediate U turn.
What I can say as of now is,
a.
Without US, the deal may not work. Japan,
Vietnam and many other countries were ready for concessions because of the promised
access to US markets. If US is not going to be there, then there is little incentive
for them to do so.
b.
Another important point is abandoning TPP may be
a blow for US allies in Pacific. It will give a signal that, US is not going to
be there all the time. Those who were more afraid of Chinese hegemony may be
willing to accept it and be more receptive of what China preaches. This will be
a clear win for China.
c.
Nations can’t build good military relations without
having a strong foundation of economic ties. Hence, in the long run US is going
to lose control of affairs in this part of the world.
d.
Another possibility is rest of the nations may
go ahead and conclude the deal.
Let's see whether Thrump will do what he preaches; or
whether his promises will remain as promises forever. Only time can tell.
Sajeev
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