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| Hong Kong protests against Extradition bill. Courtesy - Wikipedia |
Amid all confusion, what exactly Chinese National People Congress (NPC) did?
Last week NPC voted in favor of introducing new security
legislation for Hong Kong - a former crown colony of the British Empire. Rumor is that law may be passed in NPC as early as August. In their words, it is to “prevent,
stop and punish” threats to national security by outlawing acts and activities
of secession, subversion, terrorism, and foreign activities in Hong Kong's
affairs. Beijing will most probably bypass the Hong Kong legislature and add the
bill to Annex III of Basic Law (Hong Kong's constitution).
After the passage of this Law in NPC, Hong Kong
administration need to set up new security institutions to safeguard National
Security. This also allows mainland intelligence and other agencies to operate
in the city whenever needed.
Three main pillars of the new law
1. Secession and Subversion
What will be defined as secession and subversion is a very
important question. For China, anything which challenges the supreme authority
of the party and its functionaries can come under that wide umbrella. In addition
to that, in an authoritarian society challenging even the local arm of the
party can be considered as the same. Who will try, people booked under these
acts? Existing Hong Kong courts or special courts? Will the spider web of
firewall of China and omnipresent security system will come into Hong Kong? Will
the relatively free (compared to mainland China) Hong Kong end up as any other
territory of China? Possible answers to these questions do not instill much
confidence among the international community.
2. Terrorism
Just like China has its own version of everything, Terrorism
with Chinese characteristics will be very different from what generally
accepted as terrorism.
3. Foreign interference in Hong Kong’s affairs
I do not think any country in the world dare to interfere in
Chinese affairs. Even those criticizing China for human rights violations do
not dare to interfere in Chinese internal matters. Otherwise, you will hear something
about millions of Muslims locked up in China’s eastern provinces. Even Islamic
countries do not utter a word. Forget about Chinese internal matters, countries
do not even dare to stand up to China during the South China Sea crisis.
This law might affect organizations which have democracy or
human rights anywhere in their name or articles and (or) receiving donations
from foreign institutions.
It is not the first time Hong Kong is facing this situation.
Long back in 2003, then Hong Kong administration tried to introduce National
Security bill to implement Article 23 of Basic Law. However, they were forced
to withdraw the bill after severe protests by the people of Hong Kong. Even in last
year, China did not take any drastic steps during the long protests in Hong
Kong.
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| Police and Protesters in Hong Kong Streets - During anti-Extradiction bill protests. Photo courtesy: Wikipedia |
But this time things are different. Why?
1. Hong Kong elections – opposition had a landslide victory
in last November for district council elections. This election was conducted
after long anti-extradition bill protests. Now new elections are coming up in September
for Hong Kong legislative council, in which most probably pro-democracy candidates
will win.
2. China is on the back foot due to the wild spread of SARS-COV-2.
Hiding the seriousness and mishandling the same early in the cycle was criticized
heavily across the globe.
3. This is an election year in US. China might be waiting
for US election results; to see whether Trump will go or not. As per their
calculation, a new democratic administration in Washington may be more amenable to
Chinese suggestions and threats.
4. Hong Kong is not the engine of growth for China anymore.
Hong Kong is important, very important but its relative power viz-a-viz other
Chinese cities reduced drastically over the decades.
5. For Xi this is very important; after the reverses in law
introduced in last year in Hong Kong as well as setbacks in Belt and Road initiatives,
he wants to show that he can still get the things done.
6. When the entire world is trying to fight COVID with tooth and
nail, many countries are not in a position to fight China. I do not think most countries
will do anything other than issuing some statements with carefully chosen words.
7. Chinese power viz-a-viz US is on the rise in the South China Sea
region, South Asia, Africa etc, and in numerous multi-lateral agencies. With US
isolationist policies under Trump administration, not many countries want to
cross the line with China.
8. China is not a party to the International Courts of UN, so
there is no point in someone challenging China there. By the way, China already
defied another international court order on the South China sea and hardly faced by the backlash.
9. I think most countries already accepted the fact that if
not today then tomorrow Hong Kong will be part of China - just like any other
Chinese provinces. It is just a matter of time.
10. China thinks that setbacks due to the loss of special
trading status and other relations of Hong Kong with the US, UK, and EU are affordable.
11. China may also be testing the waters on how the world
will react to the eventual integration of Hong Kong with mainland China and abolishing
‘One country two systems’ policy.
Sajeev
References
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