As January advances through her third week, temperature is going further down. Last day my friend was complaining about the low temperature in the recent Bangalore nights. It was lower than the previous year, but compared to northern India we in Deccan are blessed with a comfortable weather. But this low temperature doesn’t create any problem for the promises coming out of various party head quarters in Delhi. Water in Yamuna may reduced to the dangerous level threatening the existence of beautiful TajMahal, but the political promises cooked in capital is increasing its strength day by day.
I was going through the election promises by various parties, but what shocked me were two reports about the plight of rural society. According to a report on The Hindu,
"Four days after she was beaten up, stripped and paraded in her own village, 42-year-old Dalit widow Rekha Arun Chavan wonders if she would have lived a life of more dignity had she been born in an upper caste." What was her fault? Her son allegedly eloped with a Maratha girl.
The second report (TOI) was form Kutch,
"As part of age-old practice of branding kids in the supposed belief that it will cure them of their ailments, a two-and-a-half-year-old girl was branded twelve times on her abdomen in the remote Vagad village of Kutch district...girl was branded with hot iron on her lower chest and upper part of the abdomen."These are not isolated cases happening in some remote locations of the country. When the recent BBC show mocked our culture we were all standup against the mighty broadcaster against the show. But are we really prepared to stand up against the weakness in our society?
People in Uttarakhand will be more interested in living with their own hard earned money than government's unemployment allowance. Give them an opportunity; they will make the state the ‘Switzerland of India’ - original promise given to them while creating a separate state. More than reservation minority (as well as majority) need assistance for education and starting up new busines.
So as the case with Punjab, Hindustan Times reports that,
"According to official data of the poll body, a total cash of Rs 18.84 crores was seized by these teams, while other seizures included - poppy husk 2,101 kg, illicit foreign liquor 36 lakh Milli Litres (ML) and 82,782 bottles of country wine."
The amount mentioned is not in some thousands or lakhs, but a whopping 19 crores; from where this unaccounted money came?
The promises should be something which gives people a hope to live, not something which will divide them further. A hope which will make them believe that we are also a part of society, instead of making them believe that they are separate by strengthening the division based on caste and religion. A hope which guarantees that they will get equal opportunity, instead of classifying them based on their birth - which in any way is beyond our control. A guarantee that they will get quality education and other government services on an equally likely basis instead of begging (and paying) in front of officials for getting the benefits they are legally entitled to. Let's create a manifesto which will be forward looking instead of pulling the back.
Sajeev.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Death in Ethnic Violence crossed 3000 in South Sudan
 |
| A village in South Sudan - In the expectation of a normal life |
Well it didn’t take much time to realize that peace is still a mirage in this part of Africa. After independence, when one enemy left the screen it didn’t take much time to find another enemy in the home itself. In the recent cattle raids and following massacres more than 3000 people are already killed - and there is all possibility that the number might increase as the tribes are still fighting. Cattle raids and tribal violence were not rare in Africa. It is part of the region’s history for some time. Modernity only made these tragic adventures and bloody sports of opposing tribal’s much more lethal and tragic by providing AK 47s and other guns.
According to the reports,
"According to Joshua Konyi, the commissioner of Pibor County and a Murle, 2,182 women and children and 959 men were killed, 1,293 children were abducted and 375,186 cows were stolen...He said Lou Nuer fighters had mercilessly hunted down civilians who were cowering in the bush. Other Murle leaders said hundreds of women had been chased into a river, where they drowned...In late December, the column of Lou Nuer fighters began marching toward Pibor, burning huts along the way. The United Nations rushed 400 peacekeepers to Pibor, trying to defend the town alongside about 400 South Sudanese government troops"..
Well this small company of 800 troops may not be able to protect the tribes and defend the city of Pibor along with vast stretches of African Savanna. In the Middle East, politicians, economists, strategists are worried about the possibility of an Iranian blockade of Hormuz strait. Here in this corner of the world there is no space for any doubts, if the foreign troops are not deployed immediately there will be much more massacres.
Sajeev.
Image Courtesy: Wikipedia
Sajeev.
Image Courtesy: Wikipedia
Monday, January 2, 2012
Lokpal Bill - All in the name of Federalism
Purely legalistic, technical reasons instead of moral or natural ones - This is what we can define the pandemonium we saw in the Parliament during the discussion of Lokpal Bill, the way Upper House behaved in the last day of her Winter Session. Especially the ballooned reasons like - attack on federalism, invading rights of states etc more looked like excuses than arguments.
I am not going to the merit or drawback of Lokpal. Even after these much debates I don't know how it will stop corruption; how it will protect a street vendor from paying money daily to the Police; I don't know how it will protect a person who is forced to use a low quality service from the state than he deserve; I don’t know how it will help in moving a file from one table to another; I don't know how it will help people who are buying mineral water from railway stations, bus stands, tourist places etc from paying amounts above the MRP (even the relatively simple consumer laws didn’t able to stop this)... I don't know many of these things.
Corruption is not specific to any region or state. It is a nationwide phenomenon, people can tell stories of corruption from different parts of India; the language may be different but the core will be same. If you want to prevent - I will not say prevent better word may be 'try to prevent' - corruption you need to have national level action plan, atleast national level framework. A framework which every state should implement - above that they can make more severe laws. If left this to the states then we it may take another decade to for all the states to pass these laws. As I mentioned in my previous article related to the discom crisis, even after coming in to force in 2003, there are stated which didn’t implemented the law yet.
One of the reasons for Anna Hazare's second fast failed to attract people may be their belief in government – as Parliament took the issue finally something will happen. This something may tied them to the indoors. So it is the duty of both government and the opposition to discuss the issues in parliament, people are not interested in a lengthy debate on federalism, not on whether the law should be under article 252 or 253 but an output. An output which will force the officials to think twice before forcing the common man to fill their pockets. This is what people expect form the lawmakers in the next parliamentary session.
Sajeev.
I am not going to the merit or drawback of Lokpal. Even after these much debates I don't know how it will stop corruption; how it will protect a street vendor from paying money daily to the Police; I don't know how it will protect a person who is forced to use a low quality service from the state than he deserve; I don’t know how it will help in moving a file from one table to another; I don't know how it will help people who are buying mineral water from railway stations, bus stands, tourist places etc from paying amounts above the MRP (even the relatively simple consumer laws didn’t able to stop this)... I don't know many of these things.
Corruption is not specific to any region or state. It is a nationwide phenomenon, people can tell stories of corruption from different parts of India; the language may be different but the core will be same. If you want to prevent - I will not say prevent better word may be 'try to prevent' - corruption you need to have national level action plan, atleast national level framework. A framework which every state should implement - above that they can make more severe laws. If left this to the states then we it may take another decade to for all the states to pass these laws. As I mentioned in my previous article related to the discom crisis, even after coming in to force in 2003, there are stated which didn’t implemented the law yet.
One of the reasons for Anna Hazare's second fast failed to attract people may be their belief in government – as Parliament took the issue finally something will happen. This something may tied them to the indoors. So it is the duty of both government and the opposition to discuss the issues in parliament, people are not interested in a lengthy debate on federalism, not on whether the law should be under article 252 or 253 but an output. An output which will force the officials to think twice before forcing the common man to fill their pockets. This is what people expect form the lawmakers in the next parliamentary session.
Sajeev.
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Iraq - Will the sectarian tension leads to disintegration?
Iraq - one of the prominent countries in the Middle East, the cradle of Mesopotamian civilization, is also a region which came under a wide verity of prominent empires in the world. In her recent history US attacked and toppled the regime of Saddam Husain, followed a long running bloody insurgency and sectarian violence. But after a US troop surge in the early 2007 there was some improvement in the ground situation; by the end of 2007 Iraq slowly came back to normal state.
2010 General Elections
This normal behavior led to ‘Status of Forces Agreement’ (SOFA), according to which US troops withdrew first form the cities by the end of June 2009 and completely out of Iraq by 2011 December end. Elections were conducted on time - even though it gave fractured results. In the last one conducted on 2010 (March 7) Iraqi National Movement (al-Iraqiya) led by Ayad Allawi won a total of 91 seat (out of 325) making it the largest alliance. Incumbent Premier Nouri Al-Maliki's ‘State of Law Coalition’ came second with 89 seats. Well, people selected their leaders, but no one got outright majority. These results roughly followed the sectarian division. After months of difficult negotiations Nouri Al-Maliki's become the Premier according to a US backed power sharing agreement.
The solution was destined to fail as it is difficult to have a long term co-op between forces that are not in good terms with one another. Coalition navigated through difficult waters till US military left the country. One of the main problems was, people are viewing each other more as a Shiite or a Sunni than as national leaders. Maliki is not considered simply as a premier but a Shiite premier, same is the case with other leaders too. A dangerous situation when the state and the religion are not separate, as I pointed out in previous articles religion should not interfere in politics; it’s strictly personal, limited to the person.
So when the leaders are taking the sectarian divides in to politics it is destined to make problems. In a stormy situation like the one in Iraq, leaders need to navigate through the water with considerable care - there personal feelings should not interfere in political decisions. Most importantly they should not make use of sects for consolidating or gaining power.
Crisis - Arrest warrant against Vice President
The recent crisis began when 'A day after the United States withdrew its last combat troops, Iraq faced a dangerous political crisis Monday as the Shiite-dominated government ordered the arrest of the Sunni vice president [Tariq al-Hashimi], accusing him of running a death squad that assassinated police officers and government officials....The government made its case against Mr. Hashimi in a half-hour television broadcast that was as aggressively promoted as a prime-time special. In grainy video confessions, three men said they had committed murders on Mr. Hashimi’s behalf. They said they had blown up cars, attacked convoys with silenced pistols and were rewarded with envelopes containing $3,000 in American bills... [1]'. Vice President fled to Kurdistan area, which is beyond the reach of Maliki's forces. Later Mr. Hasimi vehemently denied the charges on television.
'In addition to seeking Mr. Hashimi’s arrest, Mr. Maliki has recently sought a vote of no-confidence from Parliament against another Sunni leader, a deputy prime minister, Saleh al-Mutlaq, for calling Mr. Maliki a “dictator” in a television interview.' Well, the damage is done. Whatever be the reasons Maliki had, the timing - just after US troops left - and concentrating on Sunni leaders made an impression on the people - especially in ‘al-Iraqiya’ coalition - which later boycotted the parliament and cabinet meetings.
Demands for Autonomy
Next scenario was expected, demands for autonomy from Baghdad- in the lines of Kurdistan - started coming from the Sunni areas. In between the normal atmosphere of Iraq went back to critical with a series bomb blasts in the country, which invariably ends up in killing more people. If the trust deficit among communities didn’t filled up properly the country may go back to days of violent sectarian crisis, which can also lead to the dismembering of the nation in sectarian lines or end up as a loose federation of thee groups - each led by Kurds, Sunnis, Shiites respectively. Without international forces in the ground and high intensity of arms among people the sectarian violence can reach dangerous levels.
It is the time for central authority to act fast and reach a consensus. If the Premier tried to consolidate his authority by expelling his opposition it can end up in another dictatorship. In a heavily armed region like Iraq - running a dictatorship may prove too costly. We know what will be the results of never ending warfare in the form of Afghanistan. There is no doubt an all inclusive government is an invitation for deadlock and paralysis. But this is the way forward for Iraq, at least till the political institutions matured enough to enable a permanent democratic environment. If not only time call what is in store for Iraq.
External Forces
Actions of Shiite Iran and its arch rival Sunni Saudi Arabia will also be critical in case Iraq is heading towards a bloody sectarian violence. If one started involving in the internal matters of Iraq it may not take much time for the other one to follow.
Summary
Hope that better sense will prevail and the pressure from inside and outside will force Iraqi leaders to take the route of consensus and national building. The irony is Iraqi's may have to see more bloodshed, poverty, poor infrastructure etc even after having blessed with huge amount of Oil and Gas.
Sajeev.
[1] New York Times Dec 19, 2011
Discom crisis and Indian power sector
Power, in both of its meanings, is one of the most sought after thing in the history of humanity. The important thing associated with power is, it's always short in supply. India too is not an exception, however in this article we are considering the meaning - energy.
Current Production
According to the information from the Ministry of Power (GoI - Nov 2011) we are producing 1, 85,496.62MW of power. Thermal power dominates with 65.66% (Coal - 55.45%, Gas - 9.56%, Oil - .64%), Hydro power contributes 20.88%, and rest is contributed by Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources. In terms if installed capacity, state sector contributes 45.07% (83,605.65MW), centre contributes 30.76% (57,072.63MW) and the private sector's share is 24.16% (44,818.34).[1] The irony is, we are losing a good percentage of this rare entity through Transmission and Distribution (T&D) loses. Even though the government is proposing schemes like Restructured Accelerated Power Development & Reform Programme (R-APDRP with an outlay of 51,577 crores INR) it is yet to see how far we will be able to reduce the T&D loses including thefts.
We never produced enough power - If I can borrow a line from KPMG report on 'Power Sector in India - Jan 2010'
'A short peek at our past performances indicate that during the last three five year plans (8th, 9th and 10th), we have barely managed to achieve half of the capacity addition that was planned. As we enter the third year of the 11th five year plan, we have already seen slippages on the planned approx. 79 GW capacity addition.'
This clearly indicates that, in many cases we restricted our needs according to the availability of power instead of doing it in the other way - increasing the availability according to our needs. I still remember the days when there was an official load shedding in Kerala - a sweetened English word for power cut - of 30 minutes in between 6.30 to 9.30 (a cyclic) in the night (unofficial power cuts are extra); people used to finish everything before the stipulated slot or postpone. This slot will advance by 30 minutes after each week.
How much improvement we made in this area? Are we able to supply electricity 24*7 to industry and households? Still we need to shut down the supply to villages to maintain the supply to the cities? According to the reports,
"The average per capita consumption of electricity in India is estimated to be 704 kWh during 2008-09. However, this is fairly low when compared to that of some of the developed and emerging nations such US (~15,000 kWh) and China (~1,800 kWh). The world average stands at 2,300 kWh...[2]"
Electricity Act - 2003 and Reforms
Electricity Act - 2003 tried to reform the sector. This provided non-discriminatory open access over intra-state transmission and distribution networks along with re-organization of Electricity Boards, splitting the boards to three separate - Generation, Transmission and Distribution - units and privatization of power distribution sector. Many states are yet to swallow the reforms.
Problems in privatizing power distribution sector are multiple. Even if government wanted to bring in efficiency and competition by privatization it may not be as easy as in the case of other sectors, say telecoms. In the case of Electricity, bringing down the price using increased competition form (and in between) private sector is more of a dream than a practical reality even though it can increase the efficiency. After all electricity is not a commodity like Santhoor, Lux or like mobile connections which can be produced and distributed easily - here the scale and complexity are totally different.
Moreover this capital intensive sector required long term investments. Increasing the price of electricity is another tedious task, governments will think thousand times before increasing the rates as it will affect their chances in election. When the companies are working as departments, governments could have gave crores of rupees as budgetary support - just like the amount flowing from Union Budget to Railways, but it’s not a easily workable solution in the case of companies.
Disom Crisis:
So we have a problem - in fact we have multiple problems, we are not producing enough electricity (including the contribution from Private sector), we are not able to transmit this electricity efficiently and we are not able to distribute it properly to the end users 24*7.
Now let us come to the case of two privatized discoms, BSES (Reliance Infra and Delhi Government) and TDP (TATA Delhi Power - Tata Power and Delhi Government) - companies currently distributing power to Delhi. The recent twist in the story is something like this - Power generation companies including NTPC, which supplies a considerable portion of power to BSES - give deadline to the company for clearing the dues after it reached close to 3000Cr. Regulator DERC gave notices to BSES on November 25 asking why its licenses should not be suspended for failing to clear huge dues to the generation companies. According to BS report "The BSES, responding to a notice of DERC last week, presented its financial position to the regulator and said it could raise a loan of Rs 5,000 crores from IDBI bank provided Delhi government gives an assistance of Rs 500 crore."[3]
Well in short words - bail out. If the dues are not paid it may lead to a blackout of 70% of Delhi - a possibility which Delhi government don’t want to see. So government finally agreed for an equity infusion of 500Cr, R-Infra will infuse another 520Cr - which will enable BSES to get a loan of 5000Cr from IDBI. Good solution, problem solved? Of course not. This 5000Cr is not free amount; it’s a loan which needs to be repaid with interest. Assume that 3000Cr will go to the generation companies, then only 2000Cr left which may go for operation expenses. Now if they are continuing with the same policies, there is no doubt that there will be a reply of the same with in some years if not in some months. Now, Delhi government is infusing money to BSES will other discoms sat ideally? After all they may also face pressure on their balance sheets. Well Tata Delhi Power (TDP) also asked for an equity infusion!!!
This may not be an isolated scenario - What is the case in state run discoms? Whether these companies are actually covering their expenses or filling the gap using the money coming from state exchequer?
Some suggestions to solve the problem
The core of power sector is power. First of all, we need to have a comprehensive solution for creating enough power a core high capacity generation centres supplemented with small and medium size centres. Core ring capacity should be more than that of Ultra Mega Power Plants (UMPP). Nuclear or Thermal power could be the ideal choices. In case of Nuclear power, not the 200-300MW reactors, but something in the range of 4-8GW complexes where each unit can produce close to 1000MWe. This capacity should be supplemented by Hydro, Gas fired, Renewable energy plants.
Hope that government's 51557 crores R-APDRP will find a solution for Transmission and Distribution sector. But still we need to find a solution for the management and profitability of discoms - they should be able to sustain themselves. For this to happen government need to come up with some innovative plans - copy pasting the so called PPP, BOT, BOET from NHAI etc may not be applicable to Private companies in this sector as it is.
Sajeev.
Current Production
According to the information from the Ministry of Power (GoI - Nov 2011) we are producing 1, 85,496.62MW of power. Thermal power dominates with 65.66% (Coal - 55.45%, Gas - 9.56%, Oil - .64%), Hydro power contributes 20.88%, and rest is contributed by Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources. In terms if installed capacity, state sector contributes 45.07% (83,605.65MW), centre contributes 30.76% (57,072.63MW) and the private sector's share is 24.16% (44,818.34).[1] The irony is, we are losing a good percentage of this rare entity through Transmission and Distribution (T&D) loses. Even though the government is proposing schemes like Restructured Accelerated Power Development & Reform Programme (R-APDRP with an outlay of 51,577 crores INR) it is yet to see how far we will be able to reduce the T&D loses including thefts.
We never produced enough power - If I can borrow a line from KPMG report on 'Power Sector in India - Jan 2010'
'A short peek at our past performances indicate that during the last three five year plans (8th, 9th and 10th), we have barely managed to achieve half of the capacity addition that was planned. As we enter the third year of the 11th five year plan, we have already seen slippages on the planned approx. 79 GW capacity addition.'
This clearly indicates that, in many cases we restricted our needs according to the availability of power instead of doing it in the other way - increasing the availability according to our needs. I still remember the days when there was an official load shedding in Kerala - a sweetened English word for power cut - of 30 minutes in between 6.30 to 9.30 (a cyclic) in the night (unofficial power cuts are extra); people used to finish everything before the stipulated slot or postpone. This slot will advance by 30 minutes after each week.
How much improvement we made in this area? Are we able to supply electricity 24*7 to industry and households? Still we need to shut down the supply to villages to maintain the supply to the cities? According to the reports,
"The average per capita consumption of electricity in India is estimated to be 704 kWh during 2008-09. However, this is fairly low when compared to that of some of the developed and emerging nations such US (~15,000 kWh) and China (~1,800 kWh). The world average stands at 2,300 kWh...[2]"
Electricity Act - 2003 and Reforms
Electricity Act - 2003 tried to reform the sector. This provided non-discriminatory open access over intra-state transmission and distribution networks along with re-organization of Electricity Boards, splitting the boards to three separate - Generation, Transmission and Distribution - units and privatization of power distribution sector. Many states are yet to swallow the reforms.
Problems in privatizing power distribution sector are multiple. Even if government wanted to bring in efficiency and competition by privatization it may not be as easy as in the case of other sectors, say telecoms. In the case of Electricity, bringing down the price using increased competition form (and in between) private sector is more of a dream than a practical reality even though it can increase the efficiency. After all electricity is not a commodity like Santhoor, Lux or like mobile connections which can be produced and distributed easily - here the scale and complexity are totally different.
Moreover this capital intensive sector required long term investments. Increasing the price of electricity is another tedious task, governments will think thousand times before increasing the rates as it will affect their chances in election. When the companies are working as departments, governments could have gave crores of rupees as budgetary support - just like the amount flowing from Union Budget to Railways, but it’s not a easily workable solution in the case of companies.
Disom Crisis:
So we have a problem - in fact we have multiple problems, we are not producing enough electricity (including the contribution from Private sector), we are not able to transmit this electricity efficiently and we are not able to distribute it properly to the end users 24*7.
Now let us come to the case of two privatized discoms, BSES (Reliance Infra and Delhi Government) and TDP (TATA Delhi Power - Tata Power and Delhi Government) - companies currently distributing power to Delhi. The recent twist in the story is something like this - Power generation companies including NTPC, which supplies a considerable portion of power to BSES - give deadline to the company for clearing the dues after it reached close to 3000Cr. Regulator DERC gave notices to BSES on November 25 asking why its licenses should not be suspended for failing to clear huge dues to the generation companies. According to BS report "The BSES, responding to a notice of DERC last week, presented its financial position to the regulator and said it could raise a loan of Rs 5,000 crores from IDBI bank provided Delhi government gives an assistance of Rs 500 crore."[3]
Well in short words - bail out. If the dues are not paid it may lead to a blackout of 70% of Delhi - a possibility which Delhi government don’t want to see. So government finally agreed for an equity infusion of 500Cr, R-Infra will infuse another 520Cr - which will enable BSES to get a loan of 5000Cr from IDBI. Good solution, problem solved? Of course not. This 5000Cr is not free amount; it’s a loan which needs to be repaid with interest. Assume that 3000Cr will go to the generation companies, then only 2000Cr left which may go for operation expenses. Now if they are continuing with the same policies, there is no doubt that there will be a reply of the same with in some years if not in some months. Now, Delhi government is infusing money to BSES will other discoms sat ideally? After all they may also face pressure on their balance sheets. Well Tata Delhi Power (TDP) also asked for an equity infusion!!!
This may not be an isolated scenario - What is the case in state run discoms? Whether these companies are actually covering their expenses or filling the gap using the money coming from state exchequer?
Some suggestions to solve the problem
The core of power sector is power. First of all, we need to have a comprehensive solution for creating enough power a core high capacity generation centres supplemented with small and medium size centres. Core ring capacity should be more than that of Ultra Mega Power Plants (UMPP). Nuclear or Thermal power could be the ideal choices. In case of Nuclear power, not the 200-300MW reactors, but something in the range of 4-8GW complexes where each unit can produce close to 1000MWe. This capacity should be supplemented by Hydro, Gas fired, Renewable energy plants.
Hope that government's 51557 crores R-APDRP will find a solution for Transmission and Distribution sector. But still we need to find a solution for the management and profitability of discoms - they should be able to sustain themselves. For this to happen government need to come up with some innovative plans - copy pasting the so called PPP, BOT, BOET from NHAI etc may not be applicable to Private companies in this sector as it is.
Sajeev.
[1]. Ministry of Power, Government of India
[2]. KPMG Report - 'Power Sector in India - Jan 2010'
[3]. Reported By Business Standard
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