Monday, February 12, 2018

Escalations and Containment in Syria, Israel Lost a Jet

As per news reports, an Iranian drone operated from Syria crossed Israel border. Israel intercepted this drone and attacked Syrian site from where the drone was alleged controlled. While retuning, Syrian anti-aircraft batteries shot down a Israeli F-16 jet, which crash-landed in northern Israel. In response to lost jet, Israeli forces attacked Syrian and Iranian targets in Syria in broad day light.

What make this situation different is two things.
1. loss of fighter jet to Syrian anti-aircraft missiles
2. attack by Israel on Iranian targets.

Both of which can be considered as an escalation in Syrian civil war which already drew forces from US, Russia and Turkey.

This tit for tat exchange may be the latest in on going civil war. There is less probability that tensions will escalate. Though Israel doesn't like Iran and Hezbollah of Lebanon she may not want to open a war front with battle hardened troops which are getting supplies of upgraded missiles from Iran. More than that Assad has other priories - recovering rest of Syrian lands from opposition. He might not want to open another front with Israel, which will definitely reverse territorial of gains of Assad regime. Iran also has everything going well in Syria, why should they want to open another front? Russia which have good relations with Israel might try to contain the conflict. It is possible that Syrians, Hezbollah and Iranians are probably taking calculated risk and studying Israeli response.


PS: In addition to Israel, Turkey and Russia also lost a jet in Syria in last week.

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