Fighting for Tripoli - Tunisia, Egypt, Libya who is next?

Adlai Stevenson once said "My definition of a free society is a society where it is safe to be unpopular." But now the question changed to - how far? how far you can go in politics with out the support from common people? Just take the cases of Tunisia and Egypt. They didn't saw any changes in governments for decades. But the Jasmine Revolution was more than enough for the people to protest and bring down the governments. When the protesters were gaining strength in Egypt, many people said that Egypt is not Tunsia, this powerful Arab regime will not crumble so fast. But time proved them wrong. The irony is the same statement is coming out from Tripoli - "Libya is not Tunisia or Egypt!!!".

There is no shortage of non-democratic countries in the world especially in Africa and Middle East. Protesters are already in motion in many of these countries like Libya, Yemen, Syria, Algeria, Jordan, Morocco, Bahrain etc. These protests are not only making the African and Middle Eastern countries nervous, but raises the fever level in many other countries across the globe. As Thomas Fried man said "Word is Flat", the information about the upraising is travelling like wild fire across various states resulting in more and more protests. Indeed the news of success in other countries are giving new hopes to the people who are still living in the autocratic regions.

Look at the case of Libya, an upraising which started against the 40 year long rule of Col Muammar el-Qaddafi already took a violent turn. Official death toll is around 300, but according to witnesses the number is much higher. NYT reports that at least half of the nation's 1000 mile long Mediterranean cost is already fallen in to the hands of protesters. They are slowly approaching the Capital - Tripoli; cities like Zawiya (Just 30 miles away from the capital),  Mizurata (130 miles east of Tripoli), Zabrata (50 miles west) are already experiencing the heat.

But the regime is not quite, they are fighting the protesters using Special Brigades and African mercenaries. This bloody crack down already resulted in numerous deaths and a number of defectors including fighter pilots, Justice Minister, interior minister (Gen. Abdel Fattah Younes al-Abidi), Quaddafi's Cousin (Ahmed Gadhaf al-Dam) etc. But in the midst of protests and bloody crack downs people are fleeing from the country east to Egypt and West to Tunisia. Its not sure whether he will be able to retain the power (the chances are very low), if not how far he can continue to fight using his battalions and mercenary groups?

There is no surety that the aftereffects of Jasmine Revolution will end after bringing down the current Libyan Government and there is not hard rule that it will be limited to North Africa and Middle East. But the success of revolution is popping up many questions also. What will happen after bringing down the regime? Will the inter  tribal rivalry play the spoil sport? Will the protesters be able to go over the traditional barriers like tribe and other things and create  a transitional regime? It is very important in the case of Libya as there is hardly any organised opposition parties. What will happen after the protesters achieve their common goal of bringing down the government? Will they be united to fight and achieve democracy and other fruits of democracy like - Liberty, Equality, justice etc? Only time can give the answer...

Sajeev.

Photo Courtesy : BBC