Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Will Copenhagen results in any meaningful treaty?

[How Long?]

"Every roads leads to Copenhagen” may not be a familiar proverb for you. But now from all parts of the world, leaders are flowing to Copenhagen to attend the conference on climate change. After the recent change in raining pattern, greenery in Thar deserts, deforestation of Chirapunchi, ever increasing count of Hurricanes and cyclones, increasing sea level and temperature there is no need to write volumes about the need of reducing green house gas emission. Already lacks of books and articles are available on the subject. Over and above who can ignore nature's articles?

So finally world is assembled in Copenhagen to fight the climate change or fight against themselves? Many developed countries want binding sanctions and some like US, Russia, China etc unilaterally declared emission cuts. Countries from Africa, India, Brazil are still arguing for a fair deal.

Actually climate change is one of the ‘rare’ subjects were everyone knows the importance - there is no question on whether it is needed or not - but still majority is not ready to implement it. Countries from pacific and other island nations like Maldives are the most concerned ones. If sea level raises more than one or two feet many of these island nations will be wiped out from the atlas of earth.

I don’t think any world leader has any doubts about the need for reduction in green house gas emissions. Everyone knows it’s the need of time. But the need for industrialization in developing nations which are emerging after centuries long sleep and internal fighting sees industrialization as their sole way for growth. There argument is also based on the points like historical responsibility. Can you compare the pollution in some sub-Saharan African countries to that of some developed countries? All these developed countries now in Copenhagen passed through the stage of Industrialization in which they emitted gases in huge volumes to the air. But these African, Latin American and many Asian countries are now slowly entering in to the league of industrialization. They are now enjoying more recognition and power which they were unable to get in the past years.They wants to wipe out their poverty and propagate growth through industrialization - of course using their natural reserves.

This is the point were all the problem emerges. If they have to cut the green house gas emissions at this point of time they will have to acquire new technologies, infact they have to pump money for it. But from where this money will come in? It will not be that much easy, the new investment will increase their manufacturing cost, which in turn will result in the decrease in profit. Will the developed countries, already immersed in the worst economic crisis, find enough funds to support these developed countries? If yes, then to what extent?

Another problem is related to the carbon credit policy. Will it turn to another golden jackpot for the companies who have powerful lobbying groups in government? What about the per capita emissions? Will it consider at the time of declaring emission targets?

The countries who already announced cuts proved that they have very good mathematicians. Is there any country which announced emission cuts that will start from the very next day? or in the next year at least? Many calculated the emission reduction in such away that it will allow them enough space to emit the desired amount of gases they want.

This is not a child's game. The world leaders who are assembled in Copenhagen are dealing with millions of people living in the island nations and coastal areas. The mass deforestation, gas emissions, pollutions in air, water, sound, light etc are already taking its cost. Rivers are drying up, thickness of ice shelves are reducing rapidly, irregular rain pattern, floods, draught ... nature is already writing the future in the black board, But humans refuses to read it... How long? When humans are trying to extract oil even from Artic pole will this Copenhagen summit ends in meaningful results?

I hope (In fact I really wish that Copenhagen will result in some thing even if the chances are law), the countries will accept real and meaningful reduction in emission instead playing well in Mathematics, and the developing countries will get enough assistance in terms of technology and capital, to move forward in the way of reducing emissions. I hope climate change summits will not become another 'Six party talks on North Korean Nuclear issue' or Indo – Sino Border talks.

Otherwise you can go and watch movies like 'Water World' and be familiar with situations, or wait until scientists find any other place in this vast universe where humans can live and later destroy the environment.


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