An Iranian tragedy that can be avoided, options are still open for Iran to come out of economic chaos

Arak IR-40 Heavy Water Reactor, Iran

Disclaimer: This article is neither about, ‘equality and morality’ nor about the question, ‘if US can have a bomb why Iran can’t’? This is simply a cost benefit analysis, suspending all elements of highly punching nationalistic arguments and concentrating on simple questions.

What is the price tag of a nuclear bomb? If our answer is – it’s the cost for making it; then I must say we got it wrong. Let's take the case of Iran,

Cost for Iran

Cost of making a nuclear bomb is unacceptably high for Iranian economy. Billions of dollars are losing every year, because of sanctions over her sale of oil and gas. Obsession with nuclear bomb is diverting government’s attention from other pressing needs of economy and people. Sanctions related to transfer of technology in oil refining sector is forcing Iran to use more polluting oil. Talent and investment is heavily concentrating on nuclear sector, which otherwise could have been used for overall scientific and economic development of the country.

Rial - Iranian currency - is nose diving to new lows; in September alone it lost around 40% of its value. International shipping and logistical companies are reducing or totally eliminating port of calls. Iran is totally cut off from world's financial system and other networks. According to OPEC report, Iran’s production of 2.63mn barrels a day in September is its lowest since 1988. Automotive production is going to new lows (42% drop in last six months). Because of sanctions most foreign companies are either left or packing up creating shortages in foreign reserves. International insurance agencies are no longer re-insuring Oil and Gas ships carrying Iranian cargo.

Cost for others

Iran is an important country in Middle-East, not only because of its rich reserves of ‘oil and gas’ or strategic location but also due to its potential. Iran’s obsession with nuclear bomb and crippling western sanctions are reducing the off take of gas and oil output from her ports; which invariable keep the price high and volatile.

Iran shares a 936km long boundary with Afghanistan and offers sea connectivity as well. If there was a proper dialogue between P5+ 1, India, Pakistan, donor nations for Afghanistan and Iran then a better solution could have been possible for Afghan chess board. People in the region have to live in the perpetual fear of war. If Iran is going nuclear, then its arch-rival Saudi Arabia may also try to make one. In addition to that, Iran-Israel relations will make the things more complex. Countries which depend on Iranian oil - India, Korea, China, Sri Lanka etc will suffer.

Iran's benefit in going nuclear

I don’t think going nuclear will offer much deterrence for Iran. First of all, notwithstanding the heavy chest beating, neither ‘US’ nor Israel will go for a war over Iran without grave reasons. When world economy is passing through a fragile state, resources are so scarce nobody wants to upset it further.

Iran has to travel some way from doing a test explosion and making a bomb small enough to fit in a missile warhead (plus putting in place a proper detonating mechanism). Even if they did, it has to break the missile shield of Israel (US is still far away from the reach of Iranian missiles, except the fifth fleet in Bahrain). Iran will lose whatever sympathy it got, after the test explosion. Nuclear weapons will bring more sanctions which will definitely cripple Iranian economy which may probably lead to never ending street protests.

Conclusion

I think, it will be better for Iran and Western group to reach a deal which will be face saving for both. These are my suggestions,

1. Iran should stop the process of making weapon grade Uranium (however they should be allowed to continue using nuclear energy for civilian as well as medical purposes).
2. Allow IAEA to visit and certify its sites - Including the underground ones.
3. Iran can transfer, already manufactured weapon grade Uranium to a third country like Russia in exchange for an economic package.
4. Once this completed, Iran should be allowed to go ahead with their civil nuclear program. Probably a third country like Russia, France, South Korea or Japan can assist Iran in building nuclear complexes in Iran for producing electricity.
5. In proportion to the progress Iran shows in these areas, sanctions should be relaxed. Not only the ones imposed on it recently but the ones imposed on it for decades.
6. Inclusion of Iran in SWIFT, banking networks and other clearing houses.

Apart from this Iran and P5+ 1 countries should create a framework and a road map for further cooperation and development.

Iran needs to remember that, whether ‘West’ adds more unilateral sanctions or not, whether Israel and ‘US’ attacks or not, whether Russia and China veto another resolution in UN or not; Iran’s economy is on a free fall to an endless pit. Their first priority should be to come out of it.

Sajeev

Reference

1. New York Times
2. Iranian Students’ News Agency

Photo Courtesy: Wikipedia

Nobel Prize – 2012

Some more people wrote their name in the golden book of history. Let’s take a view on the accomplishments of these people, who contributed much to the development of human race. Starting with my favourite subject.

Physics

This year’s Nobel prize goes to, Serge Haroche (from Collège de France and Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France) and David J. Wineland (National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and University of Colorado Boulder, CO, USA) who 'independently invented and developed methods for measuring and manipulating individual particles while preserving their quantum-mechanical nature, in ways that were previously thought unattainable.'

Quantum physics is one of the important and interesting areas in Physics. Breakthroughs in these areas will definitely bring wide ranging benefits to humanity. May be their contributions will help humans, to reach one more step close to the dream of Quantum Computer.

Chemistry

2012 Nobel prize for Chemistry goes to 'Robert J. Lefkowitz' (Howard Hughes Medical Institute and Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA) and Brian K. Kobilka (Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA ) for 'groundbreaking discoveries that reveal the inner workings of an important family of such receptors (that enable it to sense its environment): G-protein–coupled receptors.'

Receptors are critical for human functions; in a sense even our eye is a receptor. Through their researchers, these two scientists and their teams were able to identify and isolate some of receptors - which sense the cell environment - in cells.

Physiology or Medicine

This year's Prize goes to John B. Gurdon and Shinya Yamanaka for 'for the discovery that mature cells can be reprogrammed to become pluripotent'. In simple words, by starting to answer the question, how we can reprogram a matured cell to an immature cell, which we can later develop to any other cell. Interesting isn't it?

Literature

Literature Nobel Prize for 2012 goes to Chinese writer 'Mo Yan', 'Who with hallucinatory realism merges folk tales, history and the contemporary'. Guan Moye (Mo Yan - means 'don't speak' in Chinese - is his pen name). He is also the author of 'Red Sorghum' (this was the bases for the movie of same name in 1987).

Peace Price

This year’s peace price goes to European Union (EU) for contributing ‘to the advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe.' Hope that Nobel Price will give a boost to the Union, which is currently passing through difficult times.

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize (Nobel Prize in Economics)

This year's Sveriges Riksbank prize in Economic Sciences was awarded jointly to Alvin E. Roth and Lloyd S. Shapley "for the theory of stable allocations and the practice of market design"

Note that, even though knows as Nobel Prize in Economics, this prize was actually established and endowed by Sweden's central bank Sveriges Riksbank, in 1968 on the occasion of the bank's 300th anniversary, in the memory of Alfred Nobel.

Sajeev.

News and photo courtesy: The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

"Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening" - Robert Lee Frost

Life can present infinite scenarios in front of us. Its often we who fails to opt one firmly and leave all other distractions. Even after choosing, quite often we end up in a state of affairs, where our side looks dry and opposite one green. We often fail to resist the temptation of choosing a way, which may not be appropriate for us. Sometimes, we may fail to answer with a firm yes/no.

Distractions coupled with indecisiveness are indeed an appalling condition. If you ever went through any of these circumstances (and of course hundreds of related ones) then Frost's 'Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening' may assist you to reach an answer.

Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening - Robert Frost

Whose woods these are I think I know.
His house is in the village though;
He will not see me stopping here
To watch his woods fill up with snow.

My little horse must think it queer
To stop without a farmhouse near
Between the woods and frozen lake
The darkest evening of the year.

He gives his harness bells a shake
To ask if there is some mistake.
The only other sound’s the sweep
Of easy wind and downy flake.

The woods are lovely, dark and deep.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.

Sajeev.

More government processes coming online – Some government initiatives, civil society failed to appreciate while criticising it for everything?

In a recent Malayalam movie - Indian Rupee - protagonist, working as a clerk in Secretariat, want to get sanction for his relative's factory project. According to the advice of a veteran official he bought a huge number of small presentation covers. Later they will divide five lakh rupees, given by his relative, to small chunks - ranging from some hundreds to thousands of rupees – to bribe officials from peon to department heads.

They paid some for searching the file, another for bringing the file to first desk, then for moving the papers from there to the next one. Still another for approving it and passing the file to next desk so on and so forth. While filling money in covers, his colleague said that, he knew three-four people who started with selling covers in front of secretariat and later became big business man.

Moving files from desk to desk

There is no doubt that, this is a highly exaggerated version (or at least I wish so) of actual process. Still, in practice common man is forced to pay for moving files from one table to another.

People often find themselves clueless about the progress of their application and spent days, if not weeks, just to know the status.

Same case in Police station as well. The process of creating an FIR is simple. But tracking it, to know which acts are applicable in your case, what are the specific charges against your opponent, what exactly the law says, when it will be up for hearing etc are some important things an accuser/ defender needs to know. If everything is on paper files, you have to depend on the mercy of government officials (/the weight of your pocket) sitting behind the desks, (or agents) to know the status. Even then, it is possible that, you may be quiet clueless about what is going on.

It is in this situation, we have to appreciate the process started by Orissa and Kerala governments (and many other state governments and central governments as well) for opting electronic way for day to day administrative processes. This will not only make the whole set up more transparent but also simpler and easier.

Orissa

According to a BS report, "Files in all government departments in Odisha are expected to be processed faster as all transactions within a department would be done electronically by the end of this month [September], cutting down on cumbersome paper work...all 39 administrative departments to switch over to e-filing by September 30"

"...departments must take steps to introduce e-despatch at the level of the directorate and district/division level offices so that most letters received would be through e-despatch mode which can be integrated with OSWAS (Odisha Secretariat Workflow Automation System) easily" - Chief Secretary, Government of Orissa

"..new files will now be processed as e-files only...rural development department has been able to bring 30,000 files (involving over 700,000 pages of notes and correspondences) on the OSWAS platform...IT department is now working on bringing out a web-based version of OSWAS for implementation"

Kerala

"...'Know Your FIR online', helps a person to know the status of First Information Report (FIR) online or complaints at police stations by logging into the official website of Kerala Police."

"...any one of the information such as FIR number or name of the petitioner or date of registration of the FIR has to be given to access the details...status of the case, including the acts and sections involved, contact details of the investigating officer, name of the filing court, and case details, etc are available online."

Conclusion

Hope that new government initiatives like this, will not only cut the cost for common man, but also bring transparency to the process as well. There may not be any more millionaires simply by selling covers in front of secretariat.

Sajeev

PS: Around four and half years back, I and my friend approached a lawyer to clarify one doubt. I don’t remember whether he heard the question first and then told his fees or vice versa. What I remember is, it was a one line question and the answer was supposed to be either yes or no – no explanation was required. This entire incident happened in a roadside. I agree that he has to apply his professional knowledge to reach an answer, but I still doubt whether 200 INR was a justifiable amount for that.

We simply walked away from him, and went straight to another lawyer. Who replied ‘yes’ but didn’t ask /declined the fees (I don’t remember whether he didn’t ask or declined but either of this happened). Today, if such a question come, we can simply open respective section from the /post the question in a legal forum/ just check FAQs in government sites. Kudos to government for bringing all the acts, cases etc online and presenting it in a searchable format.

Reference

1. Kerala Police
2. Government of Odisha – IT department
3. Kerala Police introduces FIR tracking e-way – BS
4. Electronic transfer of govt files in state from Oct 1 - BS
5  Tata Consultancy Services

Photo Courtesy: Kerala Police, State IT Department - Odisha

Prasar Bharati (DD+AIR) restructuring - Will it become CNN/ Al Jaseera of South Asia?

Prasar Bharati (PB) sounds better than their product - Doordarshan (popular by her short name DD). There was a time, when DD ruled Indian television world, with near complete monopoly.
They had many good programs in those days; mythological series like 'Ramayana', 'Mahabharata', 'Jai Hanuman', 'Aum Namashivaya'; other programs like 'Sindbad', 'Chandrakantha', 'Shakthiman', ‘Jungle Book’, 'Rangoli', 'Chitrahar', 'Turning Point', 'Krishi Darshan' etc (some of them are still there) and of course movies at 9.30pm on Friday and 10.30pm (now shifted to 9.30pm) on Saturday.

Regional Telecasts

DD's regional telecasts were quite popular in those days, after all television was quite new and there were few alternate options. In Kerala, during my school days, there were a festival crowd in front of TV at on Sunday evening to watch regional movies. People even saw the worst movies and ads telecasted in those days.

Not any more

Those days didn't last long, DD slowly but steadily gave her position to newly emerging regional private channels. I must say regional, as I am yet to see the emergence of a national level channel other than Doordarshan.

Failure

In many cases they failed to recognise the shift in viewer's interests. By the time they realised this, it was too late and DD look like a camp follower of private channels. In short, not withstanding the entire drum beating DD lost the battle to new generation channels.

Reasons that can be attributed to their failure may be

1. Less amount of time allocated for regional broadcasts.
2. Less coverage for very local news (compared to regional ones).
3. In a way DD was dictating their terms to the people, on what people should see and what not; instead of understanding what people like to see.
4. Failed to change the image over a period of time.

Still good

I still love to watch DD News for current affairs. Here the programs are wider and deeper. You can see issues from North East, South, East, Central, West and North India; from both rural and urban areas; on a wide ranging topics; even though it may be (or may not be) tilted towards government. DD News gives a nice escape for viewers from the over exposure of new generation news channels, which are fully focussed on Delhi and Mumbai; and running 24*7 coverage and discussions on things which may hardly have anything to do with people.

If somebody accused a political leader of corruption, it’s big news, but I certainly don’t want to see it 24*7. There are hundreds of other topics to cover. I am not saying DD is covering all important issues, especially issues which make the government uncomfortable but it is still faring better than new generation news channels.

'Peepli Live' may be an exaggerated version of television reporting, but not to the extent that it is unbelievable. I still remember a scene from that movie, where a local reporter wants to report the death of a farmer who used to buy the land, dig wells and then sell it. In the name of concluding the main theme for the movie to logical end senior reporter discourages it.

PrasarBharati restructuring

Let’s take a look at the important terms in Prasar Bharati restructuring scheme,

1. From 2012-13 to 2016-17, central government will cover all the salary and salary related expenses of PB (however they have to cover annual operation budget which may go up to 2000 crores from internal incomes).
2. Plan capital support for PB from government will be in the forms of Grands-in-aid not loans.
3. Government decided to waive off all accumulated interests on loan-in-perpetuity, interest on capital loans, and penal interests.
4. Loan-in-perpetuity and capital loans already provided to PB will be converted to Grands-in-aid.
5. Accumulated arrears in space segment and spectrum charges up to March 31, 2011 (1349.4 crores) will be waived off.
6. Property and assets will be transferred to PB.

This will certainly clean PB’s book. According to ‘The Hindu’ report, the process of waiving loans, interests, and fines will cost the exchequer around 12,071 crores.

Conclusion

However, DD has the capability to become the mouth piece of South Asia; like what 'Al Jaseera' is for Qatar or 'CNN' for USA or 'BBC' for UK. The earlier PB Board understand this, the better. After current restructuring this should be the aim of PB. They should cultivate DD (as well as AIR) as a reliable and prime source of information for South Asia; in the long run for Asia as a whole. Just look at Qatar and see how they are punching very much above their weight because of companies like Al Jaseera.

By creating a reliable, far-reaching media group, Prasar Bharati can do a lot more for South Asians in general and for Indians in particular.

Sajeev

References:

1. Ministry of I & B, Government of India.
2. The Hindu.
Photo Courtesy: Broadcasting Corporation of India